NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 9/15/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Nikola Jokic, Over 43.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-118)
Nikola Jokic has averaged 25.8 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in the semifinals versus the Clippers, and over his last two games, he's averaging 28.0 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists in 40 minutes. He's surpassed 43.5 combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA) in each of his previous six games, but Game 7s are usually low-scoring affairs, which is likely what led to FanDuel Sportsbook lowering Jokic's PRA total.
numberFire's model predicts Jokic to total 23.0 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 8.2 assists -- a total of 43.3 PRA to barely miss the over.
We should expect Jokic to play 40 or more minutes for the Denver Nuggets in Game 7. In the 2019-20 postseason, when he plays 40 or more minutes, Jokic is averaging 29.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. In Game 7 of the first round versus Utah, Jokic recorded 30 points, 14 rebounds, and four assists in Game 7, hitting the over on this line. He's played in three Game 7s over his career, and Jokic has averaged 26.6 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in 41.0 minutes per game in them.
Jimmy Butler, Over 20.5 Points (-110)
Butler and the Miami Heat are the underdogs in the series and came into the playoffs as the No. 4 seed. Butler scored at least 20 points in two of five semifinal games against Milwaukee and in two of four first-round meetings versus Indiana.
Butler's played 36 and 37 minutes in his two Game 1s this year with Miami, shooting 21-of-35 (60%) from the field on 17.5 shot attempts per game. He's also visited the free-throw line 25 total times in those two Game 1s, making 22 of them (88%).
numberFire's model predicts Butler to score 22.9 points tonight, giving him 2.4 points of breathing room at this line.