Here at numberFire, we have been releasing our power rankings in forms of team previews, once per weekday. At this point of the rankings, we are at playoff teams - at least, that's what the algorithms say.
Speaking of our algorithms, Russell Peddle and I pondered this week what the average number of wins for a top-five defense has historically been. The Grizzlies were sixth this past season in adjusted defensive rating, but were first in the league the season before when they had a full season of a healthy nbawowy.com. However, that was far from true two years ago, and my money would be on the trend reversing back to that.
2013-2014
| Opponent PPP | Opponent TS% | |
|---|---|---|
| Grizzlies with Marc Gasol | 1.058 | 53.8% |
| Grizzlies without Marc Gasol | 1.057 | 53.3% |
2012-2013
| Opponent PPP | Opponent TS% | |
|---|---|---|
| Grizzlies with Marc Gasol | 0.986 | 51.1% |
| Grizzlies without Marc Gasol | 1.081 | 54.1% |
If Gasol can be the defensive force that he usually is, the Grizzlies should easily be in the running for best defensive team this season. However, the question is: Does that equal playoffs this year?
There are so many up and coming teams in the West – the Suns, Pelicans, and Nuggets will all be looking to move up – that it’s very difficult to project the playoff picture. As it usually does, a big part of it will come down to roster health. However, if you had to bet on a team, and you like defense, look for the Grizzlies to possibly outperform their projections.