NBA Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/9/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Nuggets +8.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
The Denver Nuggets were winning heading into the fourth quarter of Game 3 against the Los Angeles Clippers. LA outscored them 29-19 in the final frame, however, handing the Nuggets a loss and a 1-2 deficit in the series.
Denver is an 8.0-point underdog tonight as they look to even the series. They've gone 4-2 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs of that many or more points this season, including Games 2 and 3 against the Clippers.
The Nuggets have gone 7-4-1 ATS this season as underdogs in games with totals set at or below 220 points. They're 7-3 ATS in the playoffs, 5-1 ATS as underdogs, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall.
The Clippers have gone 6-13 ATS this season when favored by at least 8.0 points following a win. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their past five games as 8.0-or-more-point favorites when they and their opponents are playing on one day of rest.
Our models have the Clippers winning by 3.0 points tonight. We have the Nuggets keeping it close, giving them a 62.3% chance of covering the 8.0-point spread. With an expected return of $118.90 on a $100 bet, we mark it as a three-star play.
Raptors +3.5: 2-Star Rating out of 5
The defending NBA champion Toronto Raptors are on the ropes, and they'll need to win tonight if they want to extend their season. numberFire's models don't see that happening, but they do project the game to go down to the wire.
Underdogs in elimination games this season have gone 7-5-1 ATS. Playoff teams in 2019-20 are 6-5 ATS following a loss of at least 20 points. Toronto is 2-0 ATS this season following that big of a loss. They are also 3-0 ATS this season following games in which they scored 90 or fewer points.
The Raptors have gone 14-8 ATS in games after Kyle Lowry scores 15 or fewer points. They've gone 4-1 as underdogs in those games.
Our models have the Celtics eking out a win by 1 point. We give the Raptors a 58.1% chance of covering the 3.5-point spread. With an expected return of $111 on a $100 bet, we mark this as a two-star play.