NBA

NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 9/2/20

Vaughn Dalzell  —  @VaughnDalzell Sep 2nd, 2020
Which James Harden will we see in Game 7 versus his former squad? Are any of his player props worth a look?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Khris Middleton, Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-132)

Khris Middleton has been on fire his past three games, and he upped his performance versus Miami. He scored 28 points on 12-of-24 from the field and hit four triples on eight attempts. In his last four games, he's made three or more triples in each and attempted at least seven. Versus Miami in the regular-season, Middleton made two, four, and five triples in three meetings, and he averaged nine attempts per game with two of 10 or more.

With the Milwaukee Bucks being down 1-0 again, they needed more scoring than just Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Middleton provided that. Middleton is knocking down 2.8 three-pointers on the season when he plays more than 30 minutes, and in Game 1, he played 37. He's played 31 minutes or more in all five postseason games, and I'm expecting him to play around 37 or so in Game 2 to avoid being in a hole.

numberFire's model predicts Middleton to knock down 2.9 triples in 36 minutes, pushing the over.

James Harden, Over 49.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-106)

James Harden has scored 31 or more points in five-of-six games versus the Thunder in this series while shooting 49.6% from the field overall. He's knocking down 4.0 three-pointers in 11.8 attempts (34.1%) and visiting the free-throw line a healthy 8.5 times with 7.2 makes (85.3%).

Harden played 39 minutes in Game 6 and was well-rested after Game 5's 34-point win in which he only played 28 minutes. Harden's over/under for PRA was 47.5 for Game 6, and of course, he finished at 47 with 32 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists. What made it even worse was he barely touched the ball the final two minutes of the game and was the game's leader in scoring and assists.

In Game 7, I fully expect 40 minutes from Harden. In the regular season when he surpasses that number, he's averaging 39.3 points, 8.5 assists, and 7.6 rebounds in seven games. During the postseason, he passed that number once versus the Thunder and recorded 32 points, 15 assists, and 8 rebounds -- his last game without Russell Westbrook. With Westbrook in the lineup for two games, Harden's averaged 31.5 points, 5.5 assists, and 5.0 rebounds in 33.5 minutes.

Harden has only played in three Game 7's in his career, and he averages 26.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists. His first Game 7 came in 2011, but in the last two, he averaged 31.5 points, 7.0 assists, and 6.5 rebounds in 2015 and 2018. numberFire's model projects Harden for 35.0 points, 7.5 assists, and 6.2 rebounds in 37 minutes.