NBA Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/1/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Under 218.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
While the Boston Celtics finished 5.0 games behind the Toronto Raptors during the regular season, they looked anything but a lesser team when the rivals tipped off their series on Sunday. With a balanced effort that saw all five starters score in double-figures and a strong defensive display that held the Raptors to just 36.9% from the field, the Celtics walked away with an impressive 18-point victory, taking their first step towards the Eastern Conference Finals.
While the over has hit in three of their five meetings this season, the teams have put up an average of just 215.2 points, below tonight's 218.0-point total. The Raptors are slight 1.5-point favorites tonight, which works in the under bettor's favor, as the under has gone 12-7 this season when the Celtics have been underdogs.
The under has gone 26-18-1 when the Celtics have played in a game with a total set below 220.0 points. When the Celtics have been underdogs in those contests, the under has gone 8-2; there have been an average of 212.0 points scored in those contests.
The under is 11-5 in the past 16 games the Raptors have been favored in a game with a total set below 220.0 points; the under has hit in the last five such contests Toronto has played.
The under is 5-3 in the second game of a series in this year's playoffs. The under is 5-1 when the Raptors have played following a loss of more than 10 points.
numberFire's models project the teams to combine for 210.9 points tonight. We give the under a 63.1% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a three-star play.
Under 216.5: 2-Star Rating out of 5
While the semifinals are well underway in the Eastern Conference, the Western Conference still has some first-round matchups left to be decided. The first Game 7 we'll see is tonight when the Denver Nuggets take on the Utah Jazz, teams who have thus far treated us to one of the best first-round series I've ever seen.
The series started with an overtime thriller, and it's given us multiple 50-point outings by both Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray. Tonight, our models are suggesting a more modest outcome than the 234.3 points we've seen the teams average thus far in the series.
This is the first Game 7 of the 2019-20 playoffs. The under has hit the last five times a playoff series went the distance, which includes the Nuggets' win over the San Antonio Spurs and loss to the Portland Trail Blazers last year.
In the last two seasons, Game 7 has seen an average of just 189.5 points scored, with no more than 206 points in any one of those seven contests.
The under is 9-5 this season following a Nuggets win of more than 10 points. The under has hit 59.3% of the time this season when the total has been set below 220 points following a team and their opponent combining for at least 220 points in their previous contest.
Our models project tonight's Game 7 to be a low-scoring affair, projecting the teams to combine for 210.8 points. We give the under a 61.7% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a two-star play.