2 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/31/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Dennis Schroder, Over 19.5 Points (-122)
Dennis Schroder has scored 19 or more points in three-straight games, and in his previous outing, he had 19 points at halftime and failed to score in the second-half blowout to the Rockets because of an ejection. He's attempted at least a dozen shot attempts in all five games, and up until Game 5 because of the ejection, he played 31 or more minutes in every game. Schroder's led the Thunder in scoring his past three games, hitting his over two-of-three times thanks to the ejection.
When Schroder plays between 30-39 minutes, he's averaging 21.4 points per game, and off one day of rest, he's at 19.4 points per game, his second-highest total next to back-to-backs (21.6). The Rockets allow the ninth-most points per game to shooting guards (23.16). In there three regular-season contests, Schroder scored 16, 22, and 23 points in each game versus Houston, and in the postseason, he's scored 6, 13, 19, 29, and 30 over five meetings.
The Thunder has their backs against the wall facing a win-or-go-home scenario, and Schroder should be one of the few that come to play based on his previous games. numberFire's model projects Schroeder to play 30 minutes, and in his six-of-eight games versus the Rockets when he's played 30 or more minutes, he's averaged 20.5 points per game.
Brook Lopez Under 4.5 Rebounds (+114)
Brook Lopez has been a scoring machine for the Bucks in the bubble, but one area he hasn't been as efficient in has been rebounding. He grabbed four of fewer rebounds in three-of-five games versus the Magic and four-of-seven in the regular-season bubble. The Heat allows the eighth-fewest rebounds per game to centers (14.61) in the league, and in the bubble, they're allowing the fewest total rebounds per game (36.5).
In three meetings with Miami, he's averaged 5.7 rebounds, so over the total here, but 4.6 per game on the season. Lopez averaged 30.4 minutes per game, and that's straddling a fine line between 20-29 minute averages and 30-39 minutes. Lopez averages 4.3 rebounds this year when he plays fewer than 30 minutes in 50 games and 5.6 rebounds when he plays more than 30 minutes in 18 games.
numberFire's model pegs Lopez at 5.2 boards in 29 minutes, and fresh off a seven-rebound performance, the numbers are slightly higher than usual for Lopez. I'll take him for plus-money to record four or fewer rebounds, something he's done in seven of his last 12 games.
