NBA Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/26/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Over 222.5: 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Portland Trail Blazers started out their series against the Los Angeles Lakers in surprising winning fashion. Since then, however, they've seemed to have no answer for the LeBron James and Anthony Davis-led championship favorites.
The Lakers have shot 51.4% from the field and 38.3% from three over the past three games (all wins), while holding the Blazers to just 42.0% and 34.8%, respectively. They held Damian Lillard to just 11 points in Game 4, which is tied for his second-lowest scoring output of the season.
To make matters worse for the Blazers, Lillard is out for Game 5 with a knee sprain. The team's scoring has actually only dropped off 1.1 points per game without Lillard on the court as C.J. McCollum has stepped up in a big way when Dame has missed time, boosting his output from 20.9 points and 4.0 assists with Lillard to 32.4 and 8.1, respectively, without him.
Their defense has taken a step back without Dame. The team has allowed opponents to hit 39.4% from deep. Blazers' opponents are averaging 118.0 points per game when Dame doesn't play, 2.1 more points than when he does. The over has gone 6-3-1 in the past 10 games Dame has missed.
The over is 18-13-1 when the Blazers have played in a game with a total set below 225 points this season. The over is 2-0 when the Blazers have been more than 10.0-point underdogs this season.
Our models have the Western Conference foes combining for 225.7 points tonight. We give the over a 56.9% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a one-star play.
Thunder +3.5: 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Thunder were only able to force an average of 7.0 turnovers in Games 1 and 2; they've upped that to 15.0 in Games 3 and 4. They've held the Rockets to 6.5 fewer points in these past two games and increased their own scoring by 15.0.
Houston is now 8-11 against the spread (ATS) without Russell Westbrook (out again tonight) this season; they're 2-3 ATS when the total in those games has been 225.0 or fewer.
The Thunder are 26-10-1 ATS as underdogs this season. They are 8-3-1 ATS in those contests when coming off consecutive wins. They are 15-6 ATS as more than 3.0-point underdogs. Houston is 22-25-1 ATS when favored by more than 3.0 points and are on a 2-6 ATS streak in such contests.
numberFire's models have the Rockets eking out a win tonight by 1.6 points, giving the Thunder a 56.3% chance to cover the 3.5-point spread. We mark the bet as a one-star play.