NBA Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/25/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Mavs +7.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Thanks to a buzzer-beating step-back three by Luka Doncic, the Dallas Mavericks are now tied with the Los Angeles Clippers at two games apiece. Despite evening the series, they're getting no love in Vegas, as they come into Game 5 as 7.0-point underdogs.
The Mavs are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) this season after overtime games; the Clippers are 1-2 ATS in such contests. The Clippers are now 6-8 ATS when scoring 130 or more points in their previous contest, 3-6 in their last nine such contests. They are just 1-6 ATS when favored by more than five points after scoring 130 points.
Dallas is now 10-3 ATS as more than five-point underdogs this season; they've covered in those games by an average of 9.3 points. They are just 3-3 ATS, however, when Doncic is coming off a 40-plus minute game. Dallas is 5-4-1 ATS as underdogs in games with a total set higher than 230 points.
Our models see Dallas bettors coming out on top this evening. We have the Clippers projected to win but by just 2.6 points. We give the Mavs a 63.7% chance of covering the 7.0-point spread. With an expected return of $121.70 on a $100 bet, we mark this as a three-star play.
Under 220.0: 4-Star Rating out of 5
The Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz gave up the 11th- and 9th-fewest points to opponents this season. Their first two meetings this season were reflective of this, with the teams combining for an average of just under 200 points per game. Since then, however, the teams have been flying when facing each other.
The Jazz have put up at least 124 points in their five subsequent meetings, and the over has hit in four of those five contests. The over has covered by an astounding 21.4 points per game in their playoff contests, despite a Game 3 in which they held Denver to just 87 points. Though the points have been flowing, our models foresee the under hitting tonight.
The under is 12-7-1 this season when the Jazz have played in a game with a total set at or below 220 points when the over has hit in their previous game. There has been an average of just 212.6 points scored in those contests.
The under is 6-4-1 when a team has scored more than 120 points in each of their previous four games, as Utah has done in this series.
numberFire's models project the teams to combine for just 210.8 points tonight, well below the total and their average output in the series thus far. We give the under a 66.7% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a four-star play.