3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/21/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jayson Tatum, Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (+132)
Jayson Tatum has been on fire, and there's no one on the 76ers that can slow him down. In six overall meetings with the 76ers this season, Tatum has made two or more three-pointers in five of them and three or more in four of six games. He's attempted 7.3 triples per game against the 76ers and hit at a 47.7% rate (21/44). This season has been Tatum's best offensively, and his three-point shooting is the most significant change.
Tatum finished the season with 40.3% from beyond the arc, the second-best of his three-year career. He upped his attempts from 3.0 as a rookie, 3.9 last year, and 7.1 this season. Tatum is making 2.9 three-pointers per game this season, and last year, he was attempting just 3.9. Tatum's offense is taking the next steps to go from All-Star to superstar, and it's been evident in the bubble.
He's connected on two or more three-pointers in his last eight games and made four or more in three of his previous four games. In his last eight contests overall, he's posted an impressive five games of four made triples or more. numberFire's model projects Tatum to connect on 3.1 triples in Game 3, hitting the over.
Nikola Jokic, Over 23.5 Points (-104)
Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets take on the Jazz in a pivotal Game 3 in Orlando. Jokic has had no shortages of scoring once he's arrived in Orlando, and against Utah, not even the reigning two-time Defensive Player of the Year can slow him down. Jokic has scored 28 or more points versus the Jazz this season in all five meetings. In the postseason, he's scored 28 and 29 in Games 1 and 2, and attempted 21 field-goal attempts in both games.
In the six bubble games he's played 30 or more minutes, he's averaging 26.8 points per game and 19.5 field-goal attempts. On the entire season, when he plays 30-39 minutes, Jokic averages 22.2 points per game, and when he surpassed 40, that number rises to 25.3 points. Jokic recorded 42 minutes in Game 1, scoring 29 in an overtime win, and 32 minutes and 28 points in a regulation loss in Game 2.
Both the Jazz and Nuggets allow the highest field-goal percentages in the postseason so far, as well as points, so backing Jokic to score 24 seems like a safe choice. The model predicts Jokic to score 22.7 points versus Utah in 35 minutes, but he's averaged 38.2 in five meetings with Utah this season. I expect Jokic hover around 40 minutes in a series altering Game 3, giving him plenty of time to find the bottom of the net.
Caris LeVert, Under 38.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-115)
Caris LeVert's line opened at 39.5 and soon dropped to 38.5, mainly because suitors like me were waiting to grab the under no matter what it was. LeVert has looked great through two games with the Brooklyn Nets, but the Raptors are playing enough quality defense to keep him under his PRA total. He's averaging 15.5 points, 13.0 assists, and 6.5 rebounds in two games, a total of 35.0 PRA.
The Raptors allow the fourth-fewest points per game to point guards (21.76) and 11th-fewest to shooting guards (22.03). LeVert has only managed to score 31 total points in two games while dishing out 26 assists and 13 rebounds. The Nets are waiting for that breakout scoring performance from LeVert, but down 0-2, it doesn't appear to be coming. The chances this game becomes a blowout is likely, and that would undoubtedly impact LeVert backers as Brooklyn's season seems likely to conclude this weekend. numberFire's model backs the under with 23.6 points, 5.4 assists, and 5.0 rebounds in 35 minutes.