3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 8/20/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
T.J. Warren, Over 21.5 Points (-120)
T.J. Warren scored 22 points in Game 1 versus the Miami Heat, and it was his highest-scoring total versus them all season. His 38 minutes were also more than he logged in any of the three regular-season meetings on the year. The Pacers could be without Victor Oladipo for Game 2, another positive sign for Warren's point production. Whenever Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis are off the floor, Warren averages the second-highest usage rate (25.8%) and most field goal attempts per minute (0.25).
Warren has also played the most minutes without those two of anyone on the team (628.5), making his case for more production more relevant. In Game 1, Warren's 22 points came on 18 field-goal attempts, tied for the team-high alongside Malcolm Brogdon.
numberFire's model projects Warren to score 21.0 points, but I like him today a tad bit more than our projections do.
Steven Adams, Over 24.5 Points and Rebounds (-125)
Steven Adams scored 17 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in Game 1 in only 28 minutes for the Thunder as he sat late in the fourth due to the lopsided score. He provides a mismatch for the Rockets as they struggle to guard power forwards and centers with their small-ball lineup. Houston allows the sixth-most points per game to centers (22.96) and the fifth-most rebounds per game (16.16). Adams played three regular-season games versus Houston, and one was only for two minutes as he exited early, but in the other two, he averaged 10.5 points and 10.0 rebounds.
The Rockets allow 118.6 points per game in the bubble (T-16th) and give up the fourth-most points in the paint per game (51.5). Adams is the only big man in this matchup with the Rockets throwing out Robert Covington and P.J. Tucker.
Adams should a walking double-double in every game of this series. As long as things stay competitive, Adams can get to the over here.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Over 54.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-113)
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks were shocked by the Orlando Magic in Game 1. Giannis was one of the only players to have a good game for the Bucks, recording 31 points, 17 rebounds, and seven assists over 34 minutes of action. He hit the over in Game 2, and today he'll either have to step up scoring or setting up his teammates with assists, both helping push the over total.
In three regular-season meetings versus Orlando, he averaged 26.3 points, 15.7 rebounds, and 7.7 assists over 33 minutes per game. In the 29 games in which he played 30 to 39 minutes in 2019-20, he averaged 31.1 points, 15.1 rebounds, and 6.2 assists. Giannis has now recorded more than 54 combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA) in three of seven games in the bubble. When he's played 30-plus minutes, Giannis has surpassed this total in three of the last five games.
If he recorded 55 PRA in a loss, Giannis is capable of even more in what amounts to close to a must-win game for Milwaukee.