3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/18/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Danilo Gallinari, Over 4.5 Rebounds (-146)
Danilo Gallinari and the Oklahoma City Thunder face the Houston Rockets, in what should be the most exciting and potentially intense first-round matchup. In three games versus the Rockets this season, he's averaging 10.0 rebounds per game. He's totaled 6, 11, and 13 in his three meetings with Houston, and oddly enough, he has only totaled 5 boards or more in one of seven games during the bubble.
Gallinari hasn't played very much at all; in fact, he's only been on the floor more than 25 minutes once in his last seven games. Meaning, he's going to be fresh, and they were preserving him for the first round of the postseason as much as possible. Houston allows the fifth-most rebounds per game to small forwards (8.58) and the most boards to power forwards (12.45) on the season. When Gallinari plays more than 30 minutes this season, he's averaging 5.8 rebounds per game, and versus Western Conference opponents, he's at 5.2.
The Rockets' small-ball lineup explains most of Gallinari's unique rebounding stats versus them. Even though he hasn't been productive on the board recently, this matchup without Russell Westbrook is an excellent opportunity to get back to the basics. numberFire's model projects Gallinari to record 6.4 rebounds versus the Rockets, safely hitting the over.
Nikola Vucevic, Over 3.5 Assists (+106)
Nikola Vucevic and the Orlando Magic face the Milwaukee Bucks in a one versus eighth seed matchups that could end in four games. While we take our focus to Vucevic and get four assists in Game 1, you need to know that Milwaukee allows the most assistance per game to centers (4.07) in the league. Vucevic averages 4.0 against the Bucks on the season, and he's met them in three games.
He's recorded two, four, and six assists in his meetings with the Bucks, but he's averaged only 2.5 assists throughout eight games in the bubble. Vucevic hasn't played with a full lineup in Orlando and has watched most of the starters rest while he continued to play. Before the hiatus, Vucevic averaged 4.6 assists in March, 4.3 in February, and 3.5 in January. Vucevic had five assists in the bubble's opener but never recorded more than three in seven-straight games.
With most of the starting lineup returning for the postseason, Vucevic could post an all-around game for the Magic. Vucevic is projected by the model to have 3.8 assists versus the Bucks. Milwaukee allowed Jonas Valanciunas to record 12 assists and Bam Adebayo to total 6, so I like Vucevic's chances.
Jimmy Butler, Over 31.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-120)
Jimmy Butler versus T.J. Warren for a whole series is must-watch television. Even though this series will come down to more than that, Butler is viable to post a double-double or to have another reliable all-around performance versus Indiana. In his last meeting, just over a week ago, he recorded 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists. Versus the Pacers, Butler has recorded a total of 27, 35, and 35 for combined points, rebounds, and assists this season.
When Butler plays between 30-39 minutes, he averages 20.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists. Versus Eastern Conference opponents, Butler's averaging 20.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists on the season, and he averages 17.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 6.0 assists over three meetings with the Pacers. Butler brings the heat versus Indiana, and the Pacers struggled in a few areas he may take advantage of.
Indiana finished second-to-last in opponents rebounds per game (49.5) and allowed the fifth-most field goal attempts per game (91.5) in the bubble. Butler himself only played four games in the bubble, and in the three that he played 29 minutes or more, he averaged 19.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. numberFire's model has Butler to register 20.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists versus the Pacers, hitting his over total.