3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/17/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jayson Tatum, Over 24.5 Points
It took Jayson Tatum a 2-for-18 (11.1%) shooting performance against the Bucks to turn it on in the bubble, and since his opening game, he's led the Celtics in scoring three of six games and the three he didn't, he averaged only 26.3 minutes per game, two coming in blowout victories. In his last six games, he's scored 23 or more in four of them and surpassed 25 points in three games.
In those three games, he scored more than 25 points, and the 76ers allow the 15th-most points to small forwards (20.59) on the season and are quite vulnerable right now. All four meetings featured the 76ers best defender, Ben Simmons, who primarily would guard Tatum, and he's out after going through knee surgery. Without Simmons, the 76ers are allowed 37.2 three-pointers per game (11th) and 115.2 points per game (13th) in the bubble across five games.
Tatum's been on fire beyond the arc hitting double-digit three-pointers in all five games, and in his last three combined, he's made 10 triples. Tatum has scored 15, 15, 21, and 25 points in four meetings with the 76ers -- before the hiatus this season -- while averaging 18 shot attempts per game. When he plays between 30-39 minutes on the season, he's averaging 22.9 points per game, and in his last five between those minutes, he's averaged 24.2 points with that five-point performance versus the Bucks. Without that Bucks game, Tatum's averaging 27.0 in his last five and 28.6 in the bubble. numberFire's model projects Tatum to record 24.2 points versus the 76ers.
Kristaps Porzingis, Over 24.5 Points
Kristaps Porzingis was one of the hottest players through the bubble, averaging 30.5 points through six games, three of which he fouled out. He's had foul trouble in all but two games of the bubble, one of the two came versus the Clippers. Porzingis will be playing his first-ever playoff game, and with no fans, that should help in the long-run.
Versus the Clippers, Porzingis scored 30 points in their last meeting less than two weeks ago, but only 10 and 15 in the two previous before the hiatus. Montrezl Harrell returns to the lineup, and he certainly helps defend Porzingis, but after not playing one game during the bubble, he may not be much of a factor in slowing down Porzingis over 30-40 minutes. Harrell is unlikely to surpass 30 minutes versus the Mavericks, and numberFire's model pegs him at 25 minutes, a positive sign for Porzinigis.
The lowest point total Porzingis had during the seeding games was 22, and he fouled out early in that game. The Mavericks allow the most points per game in the bubble (126.7), and if Dallas falls behind, they could reside to shooting threes. Porzingis went 7-for-9 (77.8%) from deep in his last game, and he went 3-for-7 (42.8%) against the Clippers. When he plays between 30-39 minutes this season, Porzingis is averaging 22.4 points per game, and in his last five hitting those minute totals, he's totaled 31.4 points per game. numberFire's model predicts him to total 22.5 points tonight, but if they fall behind, this is even more probable to hit.
Pascal Siakam, Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Pascal Siakam and the Toronto Raptors open round one of the postseason versus the Brooklyn Nets on Monday. The Raptors have allowed the fewest points per game in the bubble (106.4) and hold a +/- of -4.5 (4th) throughout eight games. Siakam was a massive reason for that despite only playing more than 30 minutes in one of his last four games. In the bubble, he averaged 16.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists over seven games.
Versus the Nets this season, Siakam has averaged 22.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists over three games. In those games, he had 28, 31, and 45 points, rebounds, and assists. All three contests featured DeAndre Jordan and Taurean Prince, who both will be out for this game. That gives me hope that Siakam could double-double versus the Nets and, for the first time in the bubble, go over this 31.5 total.
The Nets rank among the league's worst versus centers allowing 23.15 points per game, and if Jarrett Allen gets matched up on Siakam, Spicy P could have a day against Brooklyn. When he plays between 30-39 minutes this season, Siakam's averaging 24.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.5 assists over 44 games. numberFire's model projects him to record 23.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, hitting the over 31.5 in 36 minutes.