NBA Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/12/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Nuggets +5.0: 2-Star Rating out of 5
Today's slate is a small four games, but there are still some interesting matchups with seeding implications. One matchup that you should be keeping a key eye on is the Denver Nuggets versus the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers come into tonight's matchup in second place in the West, but they hold just a 1.5-game advantage over the Nuggets with two games to play. For the Clippers, the difference between second and third is either facing the Dallas Mavericks, against whom they've gone 3-0 with average wins of 11.0 points, or the Utah Jazz, against whom they've gone just 1-2; they've been outscored by at least 13 points in those two losses.
Denver and LA have split their two meetings this season, each winning on their home courts. There is no such advantage this evening, of course. LA is favored by 5.0 points; Denver has gone 4-3-1 against the spread (ATS) when underdogs of at least five points.
The Nuggets are 3-2-1 ATS as underdogs coming off a loss. They are 7-5-2 ATS (and 11-3 overall) when coming off a loss and facing a team who is also coming off a loss.
The Clippers will be without Patrick Beverley this evening due to a calf strain. They are just 9-10 ATS and straight up (SU) without him in the lineup, compared to 29-22 ATS and 38-13 SU when he's on the court.
Our models project the Clippers to win by an average of 2.8 points. For betting purposes, we like the Nuggets to cover here. We give them a 54.2% chance of doing do and mark the bet as a one-star play.
Over 219.5: 1-Star Rating out of 5
Another solid matchup on today's slate is the Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat, both playoff-bound teams who should be sending out their full complement of players this evening (Miami may also have Kendrick Nunn back if he gets cleared after being in quarantine the past few days). The teams are still jockeying for playoff positions, and everything in our models is pointing towards a close matchup when they clash on the hardwood.
Our models are keying in on the over this evening, which is not an unpopular opinion. A whopping 88% of bets and 97% of the money is being placed on the over in this game.
The over has hit each of the last three times the teams have played, dating back to last season. The over is 13-11-2 when the Thunder are coming off of a loss this season. It's 21-18 when OKC has played in a game with a total under 220 points. Similarly, the over has gone 24-16-1 when the total is under 220 points in Heat games.
The over has gone 21-10-1 when the Heat and their opponents are each playing on one day of rest. It's 11-3-1 when the total has been under 220 points in those contests.
Our models project the teams to combine for 221.7 points this evening. We give the over a 54.9% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a one-star play.