NBA Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/11/20

Can Luka Doncic and the Mavericks cover against the red-hot Blazers? What bets do our models like for Tuesday's NBA slate?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks +5.0: 2-Star Rating out of 5

The Portland Trail Blazers have gone 4-2 in the bubble and put themselves in good position to get into the play-in game, but they haven't done so without elevating the heart rates of their fan base. Portland kicked off the restart with an overtime win against the Memphis Grizzlies that could easily have been a loss, lost to the Los Angeles Clippers despite having a lead with a minute to go, and barely eked out a win against the Philadelphia 76ers, a game in which Joel Embiid only played six minutes and Portland needed 51 from Damian Lillard.

Needless to say, they're going to have to do a lot better tonight if they want to take down Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks, who come into tonight's game as 5.0-point underdogs. In their previous nine games as five-or-more-point dogs, the Mavs have gone 7-2 straight up (SU) and 8-1 against the spread (ATS), covering by a healthy 11.8 points. This includes bubble wins against the playoff-bound Milwaukee Bucks and Utah Jazz.

Portland has gone 4-6 ATS in games after Lillard has dropped 50 or more points in his career. Over the last two seasons, they've gone just 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS against the Mavericks, failing to cover by an average of 2.2 points. They've gone 0-3 ATS in those contests when favored, as they are tonight.

We give Portland a minor edge in this game, projecting them to win by an average of 0.4 points. Our models like the Mavs to cover, giving them a 61.3% chance of doing do. With an expected return of $117.10 on a $100 bet, we mark this as a two-star play.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings

Pelicans +2.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5

Tonight's game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings may end up looking like a Summer League game. With both teams eliminated from the playoffs, top players from both sides will be missing the contest.

The Pelicans will be without Zion Williamson, Jrue Holiday, and Brandon Ingram, while the Kings will be without point guard De'Aaron Fox, Richaun Holmes, and Kent Bazemore. We could once again see 30-plus minutes from J.J. Redick. The Pelicans have gone 7-4-1 ATS this season when they've been underdogs and Redick has played at least 30 minutes.

The Pelicans' spread has hit 55.1% of the time without Zion on the court this season and 56.7% of the time they've been underdogs in those games. They've gone 5-1 ATS as dogs when Jrue Holiday hasn't played.

New Orleans has gone 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings against Sacramento. They've gone 3-0 ATS in those games as underdogs, covering by an average of 8.2 points.

numberFire's models give the Pelicans a 65.1% chance of covering this evening. With an expected return of $124.90 on a $100 bet, we mark the bet as a three-star play.