3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/7/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Joel Embiid, Over 27.5 Points (-104)
The Philadelphia 76ers are down Ben Simmons moving forward, and the offense is going to run through Joel Embiid. Without Simmons, Embiid's usage rate climbs to 36.3%, and with him, it's 29.8%. Embiid takes on the Magic, and their power forward, Aaron Gordon, is doubtful after a hamstring injury in his previous game. It'll be mano-a-mano matchup with both teams going through their big men, Embiid and Nikola Vucevic.
In one meeting with the Orlando Magic this season, Embiid recorded a double-double with 24 points and 11 rebounds in 31.9 minutes. During the 2018-19 season, Embiid averaged 23.7 points per game in three minutes and have scored 27 or more in three-straight. During the bubble, Embiid's averaged 32.6 points and 13.6 rebounds per contest in 32.6 minutes through three seeding games so far. The Magic allow the third-most points per game in the paint (52.5) through four games and 10th in points per game allowed (115.8).
When he plays between 30-39 minutes, he's recording 26.3 points per game this season in 28 games, and on one day rest, he's at 23.2 points in 29.4 minutes. numberFire's model pegs Embiid 26.3 points versus the Magic in 33.7 minutes and considering he's scored 27 or more in three-straight, he's hot, and it's worth riding his scoring streak.
Ja Morant, Over 19.5 Points (-113)
In Ja Morant's last four games of the bubble, he's scored 11, 20, 22, and 25 points, plus 9.2 assists and 6.5 rebounds in that span. Morant's scoring prop last game versus the Jazz was 21.5, where he had 20 points going 1-for-5 in the fourth quarter, and missing two free-throws late. It was a terrible beat, but considering that and the Grizzlies are still without Jaren Jackson Jr, that's enough to come back for another attempt.
Morant's line for this game opened at 18.5, which I took quickly, then it climbed to 19.5 within the hour, and rightfully so. Without Jackson, Morant leads the team with a 27.0% usage rate compared to 21.9% with him. The next opponent is the Thunder, and in two games versus OKC, Morant averages 16 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.0 five assists over 29.5 minutes. In the bubble, Morant's averaging 38.5 minutes over the last four, so imagine what he could do. In that meeting earlier this season, Dennis Schroder was on the floor for the Thunder as well.
When Morant plays 30-39 minutes, he's averaging 20.2 points, and when he plays 40 minutes, that point total climbs to 22 points on average. The Thunder rank 11th to point guards in points allowed (23.10), and Morant has recorded at 20 points in three of his last four games. numberFire's model predicts Morant to have 19.5 points in 33.5 minutes.
Kyle Lowry, Over 17.5 Points (-128)
In three games versus the Boston Celtics, Kyle Lowry is averaging 24.5 points per game, scoring 14, 29, and 30 in those meetings. A commonality in those games is Lowry's ability to hit from deep versus the Celtics. He made three, five, and six triples in those three games, averaging nine three-point attempts per meeting. Boston has been stellar versus point guards and defending the three-pointer on the season, ranking fourth (2.32), but versus shooting guards, they allow the seventh-most (3.42).
Lowry has the luxury of being a combo guard beside Fred VanVleet, even though he's a true point guard at heart, and that could be a reason why Boston can't defend Lowry from beyond the arc. Currently, in the bubble, Boston is 18th of 22nd with 39.5 three-pointers allowed to opponents and 11th in opponent field goals attempted (86.5).
Off one day of rest this season, Lowry has averaged 18.1 points per game over 28 contests, and when he plays between 30-39 minutes this season, he's totaling 20 points per game. Lowry's averaged 36 minutes per game through the three seeding games, and he's played at least 35 in all three. In his 12 games Post-All-Star break, he's averaged 19.8 points in 36.6 minutes. numberFire's model predicts Lowry to score 19.6 points tonight versus the Celtics, hitting the over.