NBA Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/5/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Under 223.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Raptors Moneyline (-280): 4-Star Rating out of 5
The Orlando Magic may technically be playing a "home" game, but despite the location and throngs of digital fans clad in blue and white, homecourt will not be an advantage tonight when they take on the defending champion Toronto Raptors.
The Magic are locked into the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but any chance at making a splash in the postseason evaporated when Jonathan Isaac tore his ACL in their last game. The Raptors would have been a deadly matchup regardless of Isaac's health.
They've won six straight games, including their first two in the bubble, one of which was a 15-point win over the Los Angeles Lakers. They hold a 4.5 game lead over the Boston Celtics for second place, and a win tonight plus a Boston loss would ensure that position.
Toronto has been shooting lights out from beyond the arc in the bubble with an electric 45.5%, but where they've really shined is on defense, as they have all year. The Raptors hold the second-best defensive rating in the league and have held opponents to just 42.8% from the floor this season. In their first two games in Orlando, opponents have drained just 39.1% of their shots, including a paltry 28.2% from beyond the arc. They held the Lakers to just 92 points the other night, LA's third-lowest output on the season.
The Raptors are 6.5-point favorites this evening. The team has gone 24-1 this season when favored by more than five points. The Raptors have gone 3-0 against the Magic this season and have won the last seven games in the series, including last year's playoffs. The under has gone 5-2 in those contests.
The Magic have been decent without Isaac, going 17-17. They've gone just 2-5 when they've been more than five-point underdogs in those games, however.
Our models like this game to be a low-scoring, Raptors win. We give Toronto an 82.3% chance of winning and give the under a 66.8% chance of hitting. We mark the bets as four- and three-star plays, respectively.
Thunder +6.0: 2-Star Rating out of 5
Owners of the second-best record in the league, the Los Angeles Lakers' restart has been slow-going. They've won two out of their first three games, but they've come out sluggish. They started the bubble with a two-point win over a depleted Los Angeles Clippers team and followed it up with the aforementioned 15-point loss to the Raptors.
The slow start continued into the third quarter of their last game against the Jazz, but they were able to break the game open and hold onto an eight-point win. They'll try to build off that late-game success tonight when they take on Chris Paul and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder and Lakers have already met twice this season, both LA wins. The Thunder, however, have covered the spread in both contests and were withing two points of the Lakers in the final minute of both games.
OKC is coming off an overtime loss to the Nuggets. NBA teams coming off overtime losses have gone 19-15 against the spread (ATS) this season as underdogs in their following game. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS this season coming off of overtime games.
The Thunder have gone just 2-8 straight up in games they've been more than five-point underdogs. They have, however, gone 8-2 ATS in those contests, covering by an average of 2.6 points.
numberFire's models project the Lakers' margin of victory tonight at 3.6 points. We give the Thunder a 57.8% chance of covering the 6.0-point spread and mark the bet as a two-star play.