3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/5/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will have an increased role in the Thunder's offense as Dennis Schroder is out for personal reasons. SGA has an opportunity to put together another reliable performance after combing for 25 and 31 points, boards and dimes in his first two seeding games. This matchup is undoubtedly the most marquee of the schedule today as OKC is facing the Lakers. The Thunder are still fighting for postseason purposes while the Lakers have clinched the top overall seed in the West. That could call for fewer minutes for Lakers stars, and if so, SGA could have an advantage in padding his stats.
Versus the Lakers this season, he's averaging 21.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists (30.7 combined) in three games. He's scored 24 points in two of three games versus the Lakers and grabbed at least five rebounds in every meeting. He's gone over 30.5 total points, boards and assists twice versus them (32 and 35) and fell short (at 25) in one meeting. He's played 32 and 38 minutes so far in the bubble, and when he plays 30 to 39 minutes, he averages 19.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.4 assists -- just short of the 30.5 mark. However, when Schroder is off the floor, SGA's usage rate is the second-highest on the team (24.6%) behind Danilo Gallinari's (27.0%) and ahead of Chris Paul's (20.8%).
SGA is going to see an uptick in usage, minutes, and shot attempts versus the Lakers. I like him to reach the over here.
Josh Richardson, Over 13.5 Points (-108)
Josh Richardson found his stroke versus the Spurs for 19 points in 34 minutes, and if that was any indication of what's next for him, the matchup with the Wizards only helps matters. Richardson recorded 21 points in the only meeting with the Wizards this season on 9-for-17 shooting (52.9%) and 1-for-5 from deep (20%). He did that on the second night of a back-to-back, and having one day of rest is a positive for this matchup versus the Wizards' young backcourt.
On one day of rest, Richardson's averaging 13.3 points per game on 30.3 minutes. When he plays between 30 and 39 minutes, Richardson averages 15.8 points per game across 32 games. As a member of the Miami Heat in 2018-19, Richardson averaged 22 points versus the Wizards over four games.
The Wizards' defense allows the most points per game (26.49) to shooting guards and the second-most made three-pointers (3.88). numberFire's model projects Richardson to tally 14.2 points in 30 minutes, hitting the over on this prop.
Ja Morant, Over 21.5 Points (-102)
Ja Morant is going to take more of the load for the Grizzlies after they lost their third straight game and also lost forward Jaren Jackson Jr. for the remainder of the season with a meniscus tear. The injury is a big blow to the Grizzlies' postseason hopes, and Memphis is only going as far as Morant can take them. The rookie is averaging a team-high 25.7% usage rate with Jackson on the floor, and when he's off the court, that number jumps to 27.2%.
Morant has played 30 to 39 minutes in 54.8% of his 62 games this season and averaged 20.2 points in those games. Versus the Jazz this season, Morant averaged 18.0 points over two games -- scoring 25 in the first meeting and 13 in the second on 4-for-13 shooting (30.8%). He's attempting 20.3 shot attempts per game through three seeding games and has scored 11, 22, and 25 in that order. He's tried 19 three-pointers, making only two (10.5%), during that span, so if he turns it on by himself and his three-ball falls versus Utah, this is an easy over.
Morant could find his stroke this game from deep, but if not, expect him to expand on his 13.6 two-point field goals and 4.3 free-throw attempts per game in the bubble. numberFire's model predicts Morant to record 20.5 points in 35 minutes, but that doesn't account for the injury to Jackson, who we had scoring 19.3 points versus the Jazz. Someone has to make up some of that production, and I'm backing Morant to have a big game.
