NBA Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/4/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
Celtics Moneyline (-158): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The Boston Celtics hold a 2.5-game lead over the Miami Heat for the third seed in the Eastern Conference. They can solidify that spot with a win when the two familiar foes meet this evening in Orlando.
Erik Spoelstra's team hasn't been able to figure out Brad Stevens' squad in the recent past. The Celtics have won five games in a row in the series, and they've beaten the Heat by at least eight points in each of their matchups this season.
Boston is a 3.5-point favorite this evening. They've won 78.9% of their games when favored by at least three points this season. Miami has won just 33.3% of their contests when underdogs of at least three points.
While just 54% of moneyline bets are coming in for the Celtics tonight, 62% of the money is being wagered on them, suggesting that those betting on the Celtics are wagering more per bet than those betting on the Heat to win.
numberFire's models give the Celtics a 71.9% chance of winning tonight and strengthening their hold on the third-place spot in the East. With an expected return of $117.40 on a $100 bet, we mark the Celtics moneyline as a three-star play.
Portland Trail Blazers vs Houston Rockets
Over 243.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
After a tense overtime win against the Memphis Grizzlies, the Portland Trail Blazers couldn't quite do enough in their second bubble game, losing to the Boston Celtics by four points. While the end result was different in those contests, there was a common theme: scoring.
The Blazers and their opponents averaged a whopping 263.5 points in those two contests. Take out that overtime session, and there was still an average of 250.0 points put up. Yowzas.
It's no surprise that the team has been red hot from beyond the arc; the Blazers have the third-highest three-point percentage in the league. They've started the bubble hitting 16 threes per game at a 44.4% clip. Unfortunately for them-and fortunately for those betting the over in their contests-they've allowed their opponents to be similarly incendiary. The Grizzlies and Celtics averaged 15.5 threes on 43.5% shooting.
Portland has allowed the third-highest three-point percentage in the league this season. Their opponent tonight, the Houston Rockets, are shooting an average of 44.6 threes per game, the highest in the league. If they keep up the shooting percentage that Portland has been allowing so far, tonight's point total could go into the stratosphere.
The over has hit in 56.9% of Portland's games this season and 69.6% over their past 25 games.
Tonight's total is set at 243.5 points, the thirteenth-highest total of the entire season. To play devil's advocate, I should mention that the over as gone just 2-10 this season the previous 12 times that there has been a total set at more than 243.0 points.
Despite the over's lack of success in games with such a high total, our models project the Blazers and Houston Rockets to eclipse the mark tonight. We have the teams combining for an average of 252.8 points. We give the over a 68.1% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $129.90 on a $100 bet, we mark the over as a four-star play.
