NBA
Los Angeles Lakers Stat Monkey Brief: Lakers/Cavs (12/11/12)
A must win in mid-December? For the Lakers, it may just be. And Antawn Jamison's the key.

At what point do you press the panic button if you're a Lakers fan? numberFire's current rankings still put the Lakers as the seventh-best team in the NBA by style of play and historical production of players on the team. Because of that high nERD score, the Lakers still hold an 88.7% chance of making the playoffs. That panic button's safe for now.

But a loss to the Cavs might be the Cold War-starter. Cleveland comes into this game as the No. 30 - that's dead last - team on the numberFire power rankings. For a Lakers team that could fall to 9-13 with a loss, this is as close to a must-win as it comes in mid-December. And the stats say there are a few holes they could exploit to take it home.

A Life Without Gasol

With out for Tuesday's game, the Lakers will need to come up with a way to stop ORtg, the best of any Lakers lineup, but a staggeringly high 107 DRtg.

This unit will not likely be the Lakers' starting five - the unit with Morris substituting for Blake is only the Lakers' 11th best unit this year - but it's the one that should play most often if the Lakers want a chance.

There's no "D" in Cavaliers

Need a reason the Cavaliers are losing? Fine, there's Dan Gilbert. And the Decision. And a backcourt where only one player is old enough to drink... and Dion Waiters turned 21 yesterday. But there's an even bigger one out there: where's the shot defense?

The Cavaliers are dead last in the NBA in defensive effective field goal percentage (eFG%), which adjusts the normal FG% to account for three-pointers being worth more than twos. With opponents shooting .527 eFG% against them this season, the Cavs are allowing 108.6 points per 100 possessions. That's not good - by comparison, the Lakers have only given up a .483 eFG% to opposing teams this year, good for 10th in the league.

It will be up to the two key Lakers you'd expect to take advantage: Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard. And luckily for L.A., both players are likely to take advantage. Kobe's current .534 eFG% is a career-high if he's able to maintain it, and Howard's .588 eFG% is only a slight increase over last season but is still good enough to rank sixth in the NBA.

Quick Hits

Pace: Watch who wins to control the pace of the game, because it could determine the outcome. The Lakers are the fourth-quickest team in the league with 93.9 possessions per 48 minutes, while the Cavs are in 18th at 91.7 possessions per 48 minutes.

Free Throws: Getting to the line should be a challenge for Cleveland. Their FT/FGA ratio is 24th in the league at .186, while the Lakers are the fourth-best at holding opponents from the line at a .188 FT/FGA ratio.

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