5 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on 3/11/20
One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays. If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you need to consider squeezing in one of these lower-priced options into your lineup.
Let's take a look at five players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup.
Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat ($5,100)
As is tradition in the NBA, we have a ton of injuries to sift through to find some value.
The Miami Heat have three players -- Kendrick Nunn, Jimmy Butler, and Tyler Herro -- listed as questionable tonight, and this can change things in a big way. Both Nunn and Butler are starters for the Heat, so we have to look at some bench players for some value tonight. Goran Dragic, in general, splits time at point guard with Nunn but could see his minutes rise tonight due to their thinner rotation.
When Butler, Nunn, and the rest of the injured players are off the court this season, Dragic is carrying a team-high 29.0% usage rate while producing 1.14 FanDuel points per minute. That is a 2.2% increase from his normal usage, along with an additional 0.16 FanDuel points per minute. While this game only has an over/under set at 211, Dragic is very affordable, set for a larger role -- depending on injuries -- and is productive with the ball.
Gary Harris, SG, Denver Nuggets ($4,600)
Gary Harris is very productive as of late. Can we continue to use him as a value option tonight?
Harris comes into this game posting 21 FanDuel points or more in five straight games, where four of those games are at 26.8 FanDuel points or higher. That's strong production from a player who is carrying a 14.3% usage rate, the lowest in the Denver Nuggets' starting lineup. Harris is mainly a pure scorer but is recently starting to fill in the rest of the stat sheet, boosting his overall production.
In this five-game stretch, Harris has grabbed four rebounds or more in four games, as well as dishing out two assists or more in four of these five games. Now, those seem like very modest numbers -- and they are -- but when he is only $4.6K and has a super-low usage rate, any extra production can be huge for his value. The Nuggets are taking on the Dallas Mavericks, who are allowing 40.8 FanDuel points per game to shooting guards -- slightly better than the league average allowed per game of 41.7 FanDuel points.
This is a good, not great, matchup for Harris, but with the peripheral stats starting to add up, he makes a good value play tonight.
Maxi Kleber, PF, Dallas Mavericks ($4,400)
The Mavericks are on a back-to-back, and this is their third game in four days. Given the way they've handled Porzingis this season, I'm not sure if he is going to play tonight. This brings a bit of uncertainty to the slate but also opens up some value for the Mavericks. The last time Porzingis was out (March 2nd), we saw Maxi Kleber get the start at center. If we see Porzingis sit out tonight, it's safe to assume Kleber would enter the starting lineup and enter the conversation as a value player.
When Porzingis is off the court this season, we see Kleber carrying a 16% usage rate and producing 0.96 FanDuel points per minute. That is an additional 0.13 points per minute, the highest increase on the team and something we want to capture tonight.
Mike Scott, PF, Philadelphia 76ers ($4,300)
Joel Embiid has been out for a few weeks, but he is now listed as questionable for tonight's game against the Detroit Pistons. This is an upgrade for him, but we still need final confirmation if he plays. If Embiid is out, we want to look to Mike Scott as a value play tonight. If Embiid is in, Scott isn't much of a value tonight.
In his last four games, Scott has played 25 minutes or more in every game, along with posting 23 FanDuel or more in every single game. His FanDuel points per minute when Embiid is off the court is sitting at 0.75. When Embiid is on, it falls to 0.64. Not only will his production drop if Embiid is back, but he will likely see decreased minutes.
Harrison Barnes, SF, Sacramento Kings ($4,900)
The Kings sit at 25th in pace, while the Pelicans are sitting at 2nd, giving us a solid spot to attack. When it comes to a player like Harrison Barnes, we know exactly what we are getting. The minutes will be there for him, the production will be there, and all at a reasonable price tag. What's missing from this spot is the fact he has a very limited ceiling of points.
His last 10 games show his range of outcomes very clearly. Barnes has one game at 14 FanDuel points -- a bit of an outlier -- then the remaining nine games are all between 23 and 34 FanDuel points. He plays over 30 minutes per game and is essentially producing the same numbers on a nightly basis. Not too exciting, but the production is clear.