3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 3/11/20

Can De'Aaron Fox score enough to hit the over on his points total? What bets do our models like for tonight's NBA slate?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.

For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

John Collins, Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds

John Collins and the Atlanta Hawks will be playing their fourth game in six days, after getting yesterday and Sunday off. In their last game, Collins posted 28 points and 11 rebounds in a double-overtime win versus the Hornets. His opponent tonight is the New York Knicks, who will be playing on the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Washington Wizards last night. Collins recorded 32 points and 16 rebounds in his lone game versus New York but played 49.5 minutes in that double-overtime effort.

Collins and the Hawks will play their eighth straight game versus an under .500 opponent, and Collins has averaged 25.1 points and 8.8 rebounds in this seven-game stretch. He's shot 56% or better in seven of his last eight, and double-doubled in four of those. numberFire's model predicts Collins to record 21.1 points and 10 rebounds tonight versus the Knicks -- but I'm expecting a bit more, resulting in the over.

De'Aaron Fox, Over 21.5 Points

De'Aaron Fox has been on fire, scoring 20 or more in seven of his last eight games for the Sacramento Kings. He's coming off a 28-point performance against the Raptors -- a game where he scored 18 in the fourth quarter alone. Tonight's home game against the New Orleans Pelicans will be one with two teams chasing the eighth seed in the West. This could have the workings of a shootout, with the Kings ranking 11th in scoring over their last 10 games (114.8), while the Pelicans rank 24th, allowing 116 points per game in that same stretch.

Fox has scored 22 or more in five straight home games, and five of his last six overall. He's averaging 22 points at home this season and has gone over 21.5 points in 7 of his last 10 games overall. The Pelicans rank 23rd in points allowed to opposing point guards (24.61) on the season, and with New Orleans ranking second in pace (106.4), expect Fox to push the pace and get transition buckets. numberFire's model projects Fox to score 22.7 points tonight, hitting the over.

Josh Richardson, Under 15.5 Points

Josh Richardson is making his first start since his concussion versus the Los Angeles Clippers on March 1st. In his last five games prior to his injury, he averaged 9.8 points. Three of those five games were without Ben Simmons, and one of them was without Joel Embiid. Without their best players and limited help, Richardson shot only 40% once in five games, excluding the Clippers contest. Embiid is listed as questionable, and if he plays, this certainly impacts Richardson's output and usage -- which is already at a low 16.64% over his last five.

The Philadelphia 76ers have met the Detroit Pistons twice this season, and Richardson has not fared well. He's averaged 9.5 points in those meetings, and the Pistons rank first across the league at defending shooting guards. Detroit holds the position to a league-best 20.12 points per game and 2.23 made three-pointers. numberFire's model pegs Richardson to score 15.6 points in his return, but I think that's too optimistic. I'll take the under.