5 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on 3/10/20
One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays. If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you need to consider squeezing in one of these lower-priced options into your lineup.
Let's take a look at five players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup.
Eric Paschall, PF, Golden State Warriors ($5,000)
Green has been out for five straight games, and Paschall is taking advantage of the increase in playing time. Over this five-game stretch, Paschall has posted 29 FanDuel points or more in every single game. For a player who is only $5K, you are getting someone who is exceeding salary based value on a nightly basis. With a 226.5-point over/under against the Los Angeles Clippers, Paschall should be in a spot to repeat that performance.
Both the Clippers and the Warriors are in the top half of the league when it comes to pace, putting the teams in a spot for good fantasy production. We have Paschall projected for 32 minutes and 27 FanDuel points, making him the sixth-best point-per-dollar value at power forward tonight.
Denzel Valentine, SF, Chicago Bulls ($3,900)
Denzel Valentine is our fourth-best value option tonight. Let's look at why.
The Chicago Bulls' season has been summed up by one word -- injuries. Since the start of the season, they have been dealing with injuries, and that brings us value. Valentine has entered the starting lineup with Zach LaVine out, which has led to him playing more than 20 minutes in three of his last four games. He has been able to pile up more than 20 FanDuel points in each of those games, showing he has a good amount of consistency you can trust tonight.
Speaking of tonight, who is Valentine playing? Great question by me. He is up against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are allowing 43.7 FanDuel points per game to opposing small forwards -- the second-most in the league. This game has an over/under at just 216.0 points, but the matchup is so strong for Valentine that he should be able to hit his 25.2-point projection.
Aron Baynes, C, Phoenix Suns ($5,300)
Aron Baynes is coming off of two massive fantasy games, and you might want to look to him again tonight.
The Phoenix Suns have Deandre Ayton listed as questionable for this game against the Portland Trail Blazers, and that could lead to Baynes starting again. In his last two games starting, Baynes has posted 64 and 34 FanDuel points, coming from 36 and 33 minutes. Truly amazing production for a role player, and we should be using him again tonight if he is in the starting lineup.
We saw these teams play the other night, when Baynes dropped 64 points, but we don't want to be chasing that production. We want to look at the game overall and see if this is still the right spot to attack. Both teams are in the top 12 for pace this season -- that is good -- and Portland is allowing the fifth-most (54.6) FanDuel points per game to opposing centers. This is a legitimately great spot to attack if Ayton sits.
Cedi Osman, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers ($4,400)
More injuries and more value.
The Cavaliers are without Kevin Porter Jr., Darius Garland, and Tristan Thompson, changing their rotation. Cedi Osman has been in the starting lineup in recent games and is really starting to play some big minutes. He has logged 36 minutes or more in four straight, and we have to pay attention to that. He is producing just 0.70 FanDuel points per minute this season, but he is playing nearly 40 minutes a night! We know that minutes equal money in NBA DFS, so we want those minutes.
Chicago is right at the league average when it comes to FanDuel points allowed per game to small forwards -- 40.8 -- so this isn't some unbelievable spot, but the minutes are what we are locking up here.
Patty Mills, PG, San Antonio Spurs ($3,500)
Oh, what to do with the San Antonio Spurs' rotation tonight?
Dejounte Murray is out for multiple weeks, LaMarcus Aldridge has been out, Jakob Poeltl is out, and Lonnie Walker is questionable. So many injuries to account for, but the Spurs will have a new starting point guard with Murray out, so we can look to Patrick Mills for some value. He is the minimum salary tonight and is normally a rotational player for the Spurs. He plays about 15 to 22 minutes a night in a backup role, but his minutes should be on the rise with Murray out.
We have Mills projected for 26 minutes and 21 FanDuel points tonight, making him the third-best value among point guards. He is under 1.00 FanDuel points per minute, per our models, but he is still exceeding 5x salary based value since he is only $3.5K tonight.