3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 3/9/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Terry Rozier, Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Terry Rozier has put together an impressive stretch for the Hornets as they make the short trip to Atlanta ahead of tonight's matchup. The Hawks are dealing with multiple injuries, so Rozier could have another strong performance looming.
Against point guards, the Hawks allow 23.61 points per game (24th), 6.88 rebounds (27th), and 4.67 assists (18th). Over his last five games, Rozier has posted 18.8 points, 4.8 assists, and 3.6 rebounds, surpassing his 27.5 total in three. All three games that Rozier hit his over, the Hornets have won, and the two times he did not, they lost. Heading into this matchup, he's combined for 11 three-pointers in his past two games while shooting 44% or higher in five of his last six.
Back Rozier's total, as the Hornets could steal a game tonight in Atlanta and recent history supports his overs if they do.
Khris Middleton, Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers
Khris Middleton played his first game without teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo and recorded 39 points on 3 for 10 from deep (30%) versus the Phoenix Suns. Middleton has attempted 10 three-pointers in three of his last four games and went over for his first time last night. The Milwaukee Bucks leaned on Middleton heavily, and after playing 35 minutes last night, I'm expecting him to resort to his recent three-point shooting tactics in Denver tonight.
Over his last six games versus Western Conference opponents, he's made three or more in four games, and in his last 10, he's done it six times. In his last eight games since All-Star break, he's made two three-pointers in six games, three in one, and four in the other, hitting the over two of eight times. While this seems like a fade or too close to call, the Nuggets rank 19th in three-pointers allowed to small forwards (2.45), and the Bucks haven't played from behind much this year.
If Denver gets ahead, and Middleton is the primary scorer to get them out a hole, I'll take his over here even if it's 3 for 10 shooting like last night. numberFire's model projects Middleton to hit 2.8 three-pointers tonight.
Donovan Mitchell Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz will host the defending champion Raptors after a tough game last night for Toronto. Mitchell and the Jazz had a day of rest on Sunday, and Mitchell is averaging 25.1 points, 4.3 assists, and 3.9 rebounds in 40 games. The Raptors shut Mitchell down earlier in the season, holding him to 16 points, 4 assists, and 1 rebound in 31 minutes. That was in Toronto, and this will be a revenge game for Mitchell and company in Salt Lake City. Mitchell has been on a solid stretch of all-around basketball, averaging 26.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in his last eight games.
Mitchell has surpassed 31.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in seven of his last eight games, failing to do so only in a road win against Boston on Friday. In those seven games, he's shot 42% or higher from the field and recorded nine or more assists-plus-rebounds in five. Mitchell has scored 23 or more points alone in six of eight games and 30 or more in four.
Against shooting guards, Toronto ranks 15th in points allowed per game (22.54), 22nd in rebounds (6.70), and 16th in assists (4.65). numberFire's model backs the over, pegging him at 32.5 points, rebounds, and assists tonight.