3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 3/5/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Al Horford, Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Al Horford has been thrust back into the starting lineup for the Philadelphia 76ers as they're still without Joel Embiid. Horford is averaging 11.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in three games without Embiid. He's gone over 25 combined points, rebounds, and assists in two of three games, failing to do so in his last outing versus the Los Angeles Lakers. In that one, Horford had his worst shooting output of his last three games, going 2 for 8 (25%) from the field, but he has a more favorable matchup this time around.
Horford met the Sacramento Kings once this season and found his usual all-around success. They played in Philadelphia, and he recorded 12 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists in 33 minutes. The Kings rank 21st in points allowed per game to centers (22.06), 23rd in rebounds (15.86), and 5th in assists (2.89) on the season. The Kings are lacking a true center, and Horford is projected to record 13.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 4.2 assists to total 25.2 versus the Kings. That's right at this line, but I still like the over here.
Shake Milton, Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Shake Milton has been on fire for the 76ers over his last four games as he's steadily increased his minutes with Ben Simmons out. Milton has gone over 24.5 points, rebounds, and assists in three of his four games. The Lakers kept him under his total in the previous game, and much like Horford, this is a better matchup for Milton. The Kings rank 16th in points (23.84), 10th in rebounds (5.86), and 21st in assists (8.27) allowed to point guards on the season.
Shake's usage rate is at 21.23% across his last five games, and he's played 32 or more minutes in three of his last four, scoring double-digits in four-straight games. Milton has made double-digit three-pointers in five of his last six games, made four or more in three games, and averages 11 shot attempts during that stretch.
Milton's combined numbers are much better on the road (16.3 total points, boards and dimes for the year) than at home (9.2). In a game with a 218.0-point total, Milton has a chance to fly past this tonight.
Lou Williams, Over 14.5 Points
Louis Williams has averaged 18.3 points in his last three games, and he's scored more than 14 points in two of three. In his most recent game versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, he scored 14 on the nose. This is the lowest his over/under for points has been all season, and the additions of Reggie Jackson and Patrick Beverley to the lineup are likely the reason why. Sweet Lou shot over 40% in all six games since play resumed following the All-Star break, and he averaged 16.5 points across February.
The Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets meet tonight in a matchup of the two hottest offensive teams in the league. Over their last five games, the Rockets lead the league in scoring (123.4), and the Clippers are second (120.6). In Williams' first two games versus the Rockets, he scored 20 and 26 points, but in the last meeting, he netted only six points in 17 minutes. The previous two meetings, he played 34 and 41 minutes versus Houston, and in his last six games overall, he's averaged 24.6 minutes. numberFire's model projects Williams to score 14.6 points in 25.21 minutes, barely hitting the over on this line.