3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 2/13/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Marcus Morris, Under 15.5 Points
Marcus Morris and the Los Angeles Clippers are in Boston tonight, where he spent two seasons (2017-19). Morris averaged 19.6 points for the New York Knicks this season, and scored 10 and 13 in his first two games as a Clipper. The Clippers are figuring out their rotation, with Morris playing 22 minutes in his first game, then 35 versus the Philadelphia 76ers.
He's played Boston twice in a Knicks uniform this season, averaging 20.5 points in both contests. In his last two games with New York he averaged 27 points, but that's not likely to happen very often with Los Angeles. numberFire's model projects Morris for 14.2 points, going under his 18.5 total tonight, and I back that tremendously.
Boston is the second-best team in points allowed to small forwards this season (18.74) while ranking 15th (21.85) versus power forwards. They're third in defensive net rating (105.6), and it'll take a team effort to beat the Celtics in Boston. I don't see Morris getting a ton of quality shots versus his former squad after they allowed 66 free throws to Houston on Tuesday.
Kemba Walker, Under 21.5 Points
Kemba Walker's scoring has been up and down for the Celtics, but he's 20th in the league with 21.8 points per game. Walker has gone over 22 points four times in his last 10 games and once in his last five. He scored 27 versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, but besides that, he's averaged 14.5 points in four games. Walker is shooting 34% over his last three and hasn't shot better than 50% from the field in seven straight.
Despite Patrick Beverley, the Clippers rank 19th in points allowed to point guards (24.07) and 23rd in made three-pointers (2.89). Walker does have the advantage tonight, but he hasn't played over 30 minutes in his last three games. His usage rating has gone down 3.29% over the last five, too, despite all the injuries to the Celtics.
Although numberFire's model projects Walker with 22.5 points tonight, there are a lot of shots to go around in Boston versus a stingy Clippers defense that ranks sixth in defensive net rating (106.6).
Chris Paul, Over 18.5 Points
Chris Paul has put together three straight games of 22 or more points, including 31 versus the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday. Paul has shot 53% or higher in his last three games, and he's faced the New Orleans Pelicans three times already this season. Paul scored 15 in the first meeting, followed by 7 and 16 points in a home-and-home series that stretched over three days. Despite holding Paul to 12.6 points per game, he's shot 51.8% against the Pelicans (14 of 27 shot attempts), 42.8% from three (6/14), and a perfect 4-for-4 from the free-throw line.
The Pelicans allow the eighth-most points to point guards (24.72) and the 11th-most made threes (2.79). Paul's usage rating is up to 24.01% over the last five games, and his Player Efficiency Rating is up to 25th in the league. The Pelicans have allowed at least 117 points in each of their last five games, so Paul should keep up his strong play heading into his 10th All-Star Game.
numberFire's model pegs Paul at 18.4 -- too close to call -- but after his last three, I'll roll the dice on Paul heading into All-Star Weekend.