NBA Odds Update: The Nuggets Are Moving Up
In this edition of the NBA Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their odds move the most since our last update.
Teams that had strong weeks and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those who had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see our odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. Here's a look at four of the teams who had the most movement in title odds over the last week.
FanDuel Title Odds: +1700
numberFire Champs Probability: 7.2%
According to numberFire's model, only three teams enter today with a higher championship probability than the Boston Celtics.
The Celtics currently sit third in the East, but there's a lot to be intrigued about with this team. Boston is second in the league -- behind only Milwaukee -- with a net rating of 7.2. The Celtics are also top seven in adjusted offensive rating, defensive rating, and margin of victory.
Brad Stevens and his squad have put together quite an impressive resume, having already beaten the Toronto Raptors, Milwaukee Bucks, Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, Philadelphia 76ers, and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Incredibly, Boston has three players averaging more than 20 points per game, five players posting more than 6 rebounds, three players averaging at least 4 assists, four players averaging at least 1 steal, and seven players shooting 35 percent or better from downtown. The depth and balance on this unit are impossible to ignore.
At +1700, Boston is a great value -- especially given the fact that they're a Giannis Antetokounmpo injury away from being the likely favorites in the East.
FanDuel Title Odds: +2000
numberFire Champs Probability: 2.8%
The Utah Jazz seem like the toughest team to make sense of in the 2019-20 season. They recently won 19 of 21 games but sandwiched that with stretches of 6 losses in 9 games and, more recently, 5 losses in 7 games.
Utah has the seventh-best net rating in the league entering today, while they've been seventh-worst in that category over their last seven contests.
On the season, Utah is inside the top 10 in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, rebounding percentage, effective field goal percentage, and true shooting percentage. As a team, their 38.6 shooting percentage from beyond the arc is tops in the league.
There are some glaring concerns for Quin Snyder's squad, however. Offensively, Utah is 26th in the league in assists per game, at just 22.1. If their three-point percentage starts dropping, they could see a sizable drop in offensive efficiency. Defensively -- despite the presence of two-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert -- the Jazz are averaging the fewest steals and second-fewest blocks per game in the Association.
Even at 20/1, it's tough to feel good about wagering on the streaky Jazz.
FanDuel Title Odds: +1700
numberFire Champs Probability: 1.6%
Speaking of odds that can't feel good to bet on, the Philadelphia 76ers currently sit at 17/1.
If they got to play at home the entire postseason, the Sixers at +1700 -- and their league-best 24-2 home record -- would be the most bet-on team in the country. However, as it stands now, Philly would not have home-court in any of the four tough series they'd need to win in order bring home a title.
Just how bad have the 76ers been on the road? The only teams with worse net ratings away from home are the Atlanta Hawks, Golden State Warriors, Charlotte Hornets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Washington Wizards, and New York Knicks. That's...not exactly great company.
Against teams with winning records, Philadelphia is a horrid 1-13 on the road. That won't play in the postseason.
FanDuel Title Odds: +2500
numberFire Champs Probability: 1.9%
With no real powerhouse emerging in the West, it's hard not to see value in the 25/1 odds of the Denver Nuggets.
Let's first start with Denver's resume. So far this season, the Nuggets have defeated the Bucks, Lakers, Heat, 76ers, Rockets, Celtics, Thunder, Pacers, Mavericks, Jazz, and Clippers. That's a rather impressive list.
Mike Malone's squad has the second-best conference record in the West and hasn't lost back-to-back games since early December. The Nuggets are also well-balanced, appearing inside the top 10 in both defensive and offensive efficiency. Their assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.96 is second-best in the NBA.
The Nuggets are led by star center Nikola Jokic. Over his last 33 games, Jokic is averaging 23.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists on 54.3, 38.9, and 81.1 shooting splits.
When healthy, it's not too far-fetched to say that Denver has the depth and makeup to make a lengthy postseason run.