NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 2/6/20

Vaughn Dalzell  —  @VaughnDalzell Feb 6th, 2020
Can LeBron James rack up boards against the Clint Capela-less Houston Rockets? What prop bets do our models like tonight?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.

For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Joel Embiid, Over 24.5 Points

The Philadelphia 76ers have lost three straight, and head into Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. This is a significant game for Joel Embiid and the 76ers, as they try to end their longest losing streak of the season. Embiid loves primetime games and has been dominant in his last four games against the Bucks. Embiid scored 31 points in 28 minutes versus the Bucks on Christmas, giving him his fourth straight game of 30-plus points versus Milwaukee. This matchup will be on TNT, and the 76ers will be desperate for a win.

Milwaukee only allows 18.88 points per game (third) to centers, and numberFire projects Embiid to score 22.9 points -- resulting in the under. That said, Embiid is averaging 29.2 points in seven career games against the Bucks and has scored under 25 against them only twice in his four years.

LeBron James, Over 7.5 Rebounds

No matter what position LeBron James plays tonight versus the Houston Rockets, he should find success rebounding for the Los Angeles Lakers. The Rockets allow the fifth-most rebounds to small forwards per game (8.61), third-most to power forwards (12.50), and fifth-most to point guards (6.77). Combine that with the fact Houston will be without Clint Capela, and the King could be in for a huge night.

LeBron has the fourth-highest ceiling of all players tonight (63.78), and he averaged 7.3 rebounds in three games versus Houston last season. The recent trade of Capela, and Houston's lack of a true big man, should impact this matchup right away. numberFire's model projects LeBron with 7.3 rebounds, making this a close call. However, I'm siding with a triple-double watch tonight for King James at Staples.

Thaddeus Young, Over 13.5 Points

The Chicago Bulls are in a terrible spot with tons of injuries and Zach LaVine being double-teamed night-in and night-out as the only real scoring threat. One player that's stepped up has been Thaddeus Young. Young has averaged 15 points over his last five games and surpassed 30 minutes in four of those contests. Young's usage rating of 19.82% is the fourth-highest on the team of players with at least 1,000 minutes, and his 29.02 ceiling factor is among the top-10 in available power forwards tonight.

Chicago's opponent is the New Orleans Pelicans, and they allow the fifth-most points per game to power forwards (23.64). Without Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter, and Kris Dunn, the Bulls are down to LaVine and Young as the only players they can rely on. The Pelicans are 26th in opponent field goals attempted (92.0) and 27th in opponent field goals made (42.6), giving Young and company some hope to score. Young's minutes and scoring have increased in the seven games he's been named a starter. He's averaging 13 points per game in 29.8 minutes, and I like Young to surpass 30 minutes and take advantage of the Pelicans' porous defense against the position.