3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 2/5/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Devin Booker, Under 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Devin Booker is looking to rebound after a woeful 3 for 15 shooting performance against the Brooklyn Nets. Booker recorded 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists, after five games of scoring 27 or more.
The Suns are on the road in Detroit to take on the Pistons, who are surprisingly enough ranked atop the league when it comes to defending guards. Detroit ranks third in points allowed per game to shooting guards (20.41) and eighth versus point guards (22.56).
Booker's averages of 26.1 points, 6.3 assists, and 4.3 rebounds on the season go under his 40.5 total, and pace is going to be a factor into what Booker can do offensively. The Suns own the 9th-best pace, but Detroit ranks 19th. That ultimately points me towards the under after that poor showing in Brooklyn, heading into the final road game of a three-game road trip. In the past three games, the only guard that found all-around success versus Detroit was Will Barton, and he posted 34 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
numberFire projects Booker to record 27.5 points, 7.1 assists, and 4.2 rebounds, combining for 38.8 and hitting the under.
Nikola Jokic, Under 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Nikola Jokic was joined by Jamal Murray last night, and the Denver Nuggets looked fantastic in a home win over the Portland Trail Blazers. Jokic finished the game with 29 points, 13 rebounds, and 9 assists, falling short of his second straight triple-double. Versus the Detroit Pistons, he recorded 39 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists in his last game without Murray.
Thanks to Gobert, the Jazz rank 6th versus centers in points allowed per game (19.77) and 10th in rebounding (14.92). Both centers were once again named All-Stars this season, but Jokic has had much more on his plate recently with Murray out for 10 games. Jokic's usage rating jumped to 31.81% over the last 10 games, the most of all available centers tonight.
Jokic has played fantastic, and the Nuggets put an end to Damian Lillard's impressive streak last night, but I'm predicting the Jazz end Jokic's own impressive stretch. numberFire's model agrees, backing the under here with 20.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 7.1 assists, totaling 37.9.
Paul George, Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Paul George is entering his fourth game since returning from injury, and the Los Angeles Clippers travel cross country to the Miami Heat, ending their five-game homestand. In those five contests, George has averaged 18.4 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game, well under the 29.5 total.
However, despite those modest numbers, out of all the forwards available tonight, George has the highest usage rate over the last five games (33.23), and in his his last two, he's recorded 20.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 5 assists -- making tonight's over more feasible.
The Heat are very good defensively. They rank 10th in points allowed per game to small forwards (20.07), fifth in opponent field goal percent (44.3%), and first in opponent three-point percentage (32.8%). Looking at the numbers, the Heat could have the advantage, but George playing his third game with Kawhi Leonard since January 2nd has its perks. George has gone over 29.5 in both games, despite playing only 25 and 31 minutes alongside Leonard.
It'll be difficult for the Heat to stop both forwards in an exciting matchup between two of the best teams in the league. I like George to play over 30 minutes and hit his overs tonight. In his last three games playing 30 or more minutes, he's double-doubled in all three and gone over 29.5 points, rebounds, and assists. numberFire's model backs that with a projected 24.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.9 assists in 30.86 minutes, totaling 34.9.