3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 1/31/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Zach LaVine, Over 29.5 Points
Neither Zach LaVine nor Kyrie Irving were selected to the Eastern Conference All-Star team, and LaVine should certainly feel snubbed. The All-Star Game will be in Chicago, but the only Bulls' player represented would be LaVine if he accepts an invitation to the dunk contest. On the season, he's averaged 25.1 points (12th), 4.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 3.1 made three-pointers per game. LaVine scored 36 points on 11-for-24 shooting (45.8%) in the only meeting of the season versus Brooklyn.
The Nets rank 19th by allowing opposing shooting guards to average 21.84 points per game, with 3.1 made three-pointers (16th), as well. I expect faster-paced Brooklyn to control the pace as the home team, possibly leading to more LaVine shot opportunities. The Nets rank ninth in pace (104.4), while Chicago is 17th (101.8).
LaVine's usage rating has increased 14.63 percentage points above his season average over the last five games, the fifth-highest among shooting guards, as he's averaging a 36.56% usage rate in that time. LaVine is averaging 26.9 points on the road this season and 27.2 over his last eight away from the United Center in January. In a pace-up spot, I'm banking on LaVine earning his third 30-point effort across his last six road games, and if you're into narratives, it's easy to buy into him having a little extra motivation after his all-star snub.
Zion Williamson, Over 17.5 Points
Zion Williamson and Ja Morant meet in what is certainly the most interesting game of the night. We will see two up-and-coming teams that have already exceeded expectations for the season in the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies.
Williamson has averaged 18.0 points and 8.3 rebounds through his first four games, and the Pels are scoring 117.7 points as a team with him in the lineup. The Grizzlies are allowing 22.11 points per game (17th) and 10.91 rebounds per game (11th) to opposing power forwards on the season. Both teams rank top-10 in points per game, and the over/under is set at 241 tonight.
The two teams met on January 20th, the night before Zion made his debut, and combined for 242 points. numberFire projects Williamson to record 17.2 points versus the Grizzlies, but I like him to edge past the 17.5-point line in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring contest.
Damian Lillard, Over 32.5 Points
Damian Lillard continued his scoring streak against the Houston Rockets in his last game, totaling 36 points and recording his first triple-double of his career with 11 assists and 10 rebounds in the win. Next up for Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers is the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center in what's going to be an emotional game for the city of Los Angeles.
In the last six games, Lillard has done it all offensively, connecting on 81 of 157 (51.5%) field goal attempts, 41 of 81 (50.6%) of three-pointers, and 59 of 68 free throws (86.7%). He is scorching hot.
The Lakers are ranked 21st allowing 24.31 points to opposing point guards, and that number is certainly going to increase after tonight. Lillard has the third-highest ceiling/floor rating tonight among point guards (59.72), per our model, and his usage rating has skyrocketed to 35.73% over the last five games, second-highest among active point guards tonight.
This matchup is most likely to be an uptempo one as both offenses are ranked top-13 in pace and top-11 in points per game. The line of 32.5 points is steep, but I like over considering Lillard has averaged 43.6 points across the last six games, including 34.0 in his two road games during his impressive six-game scoring stretch.