3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 1/30/20

Can Devonte' Graham surpass his scoring average versus a lackluster Wizards defense? What prop bets do our models like for tonight's slate?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.

For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Joel Embiid, Under 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Joel Embiid made a surprise return to the Philadelphia 76ers starting lineup on Tuesday against the Golden State Warriors after missing the last nine games. Embiid paid homage to the late-Kobe Bryant, by wearing 24 and scoring 24 points in Philly's 115-104 win. Embiid and the Sixers open a four-game road trip starting with the Atlanta Hawks tonight. Embiid has only played three games in 2020 and hasn't surpassed 39.5 points, rebounds, and assists in any of them. On the season, Embiid is averaging 23.4 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, totaling 36.2.

The Sixers played in Atlanta earlier in the season, in what was the first road game of the year and second game overall for the 76ers. Embiid recorded 36 points, 13 rebounds, and 5 assists in 33 minutes -- dominating the Hawks. Embiid has a 31.88% usage rating over his last 10 games, which should play well against a Hawks team that allows 22.86 points (28th), 15.13 rebounds (14th), and 3.52 assists per game (19th) to opposing centers.

All that said, Embiid only played 26 minutes versus the Warriors, and Golden State is surrendering similar numbers towards opposing big men. I expect him to be more cautious in his second game back from his hand injury, and for the Sixers staff to limit his minutes once again. Embiid is projected by numberFire's model to record 23 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists -- backing the under.

Collin Sexton, Under 20.5 Points

Collin Sexton has flat out been playing the best basketball of his two-year career this month. He's averaging a career-high 22.7 points in January, scoring 21 or more points in 9 of the 15 games. He's led the Cleveland Cavaliers in scoring 9 times this month, compared to 12 times in his previous 33 games. As you know, January is about over, with the Toronto Raptors being Sexton's final opponent in the impressive month.

The Raptors allow the second-fewest points to combo guards on the season (20.26), trailing only the Miami Heat (18.74). Toronto has also forced the fifth-most turnovers from combo guards in the league over the past month (4.08). Toronto also holds their opponent to 42.8% from the field, ranking second-stingiest, and 33.6% from three-point land, good enough for third-best. Sexton met Toronto twice in December, scoring 22 and 25 points on 58% shooting (18/31) -- though those came without either Marc Gasol or Fred VanVleet in the lineup. Toronto's defense is allowing 21.06 points to point guards. However, numberFire's projections peg Sexton to hit the under with 19.2 points in Cleveland tonight.

Devonte' Graham, Over 18.5 Points

Devonte' Graham and the Charlotte Hornets earned their first win on Tuesday against the New York Knicks -- this coming after eight straight losses. Graham scored single-digits -- recording five points on 1 for 8 shooting -- for the second time in his last 16 games. Good news for Graham, he visits the nation's capital for his third meeting with the Washington Wizards. The Wizards have allowed 137.2 points over their last 4 games and 125.5 points over the last 10. In Graham's two meetings with the Wizards this season, he's averaging 24 points, and he's scored 19 or more in both.

Graham connected on 9 of 20 three-point attempts in the two meetings, and the Wizards defense has done anything but improve since their last meeting on December 10th. Washington ranks last in defensive rating (116.6), opponent field goal percentage (49.2%), and points allowed per game (121.3). The Wizards are allowing 24.42 points to point guards per game, seventh-most in the league. Washington is also allowing a league-worst 26.7 points to opposing shooting guards. numberFire's model projects Graham to score 17.7 points, which would result in him hitting the under. That said, I like his upside tonight on the road, where he's surpassed 19 points in three of his last six games.