NBA Betting Guide: Tuesday 1/28/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Nuggets Moneyline (+106): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Nuggets +1: 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. Winners of nine of their past 11 games, the team has pushed into the 8 seed in the Western Conference playoff race, a massive improvement over their 2018-19 finish. Tonight they take on a team that's been just about as hot as them recently, the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets, who are 1.0-point underdogs tonight, come into this game at 32-14. A win tonight would push them into a tie with the Los Angeles Clippers for second place in the West.
The Grizzlies have the best assist ratio in the league and are a top-10 shooting team. They do, however, struggle with turnovers. They have the 11th-highest turnover rate, and teams are turning that into the third-most points per game off of turnovers. The Grizz also give up the third-most second-chance points, which doesn't bode well against a Nuggets team that has the sixth-best rebounding percentage in the NBA.
Denver has taken the last four games in the series, including both of the matchups they've played this year. Denver has won by at least nine points in each of the previous two contests this season. Turnovers were key; the Nuggets gave up the ball just 11.0 times per game in those clashes, compared to the Grizzlies' 16.5.
Our models expect a closer game tonight, but we have the Nuggets taking control of this matchup once again. We give them a 59.8% chance of winning and a 61.4% chance of covering the spread.
Hornets Moneyline (-126): 3-Star Rating out of 5
It's OK to admit that you won't be watching this game. Not many will be. The New York Knicks and Charlotte Hornets come into tonight's clash with a combined 28-65 record, which means the audience will likely only consist of Spike Lee, Michael Jordan, and, perhaps, those betting on the game.
The Knicks are coming off a surprising 13-point home win over the Brooklyn Nets. Unfortunately for them, winning multiple games in a row seems a Sisyphean task. They're just 3-9 following a win this year. Of those games, they're 0-5 when they're playing on the road after a home win, losing by an average of 13.2 points.
Both teams are among the four worst shooting teams in the league. Again, we're in for a barn burner (though it may be hard to burn that barn if it's built out of bricks, amirite?). The Hornets, to their credit, are a patient team at least, always looking for one more pass. They're fifth in the league in assist percentage, while the Knicks have the third-lowest assist rate.
The teams have played once this season, a 103-102 Hornets win. Our models expect a similarly close game tonight, projecting the Hornets to eke out a win. We give Charlotte a 65.3% chance of winning and mark the moneyline bet as a three-star play.