3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 1/28/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Pascal Siakam, Over 22.5 Points
Pascal Siakam was named an All-Star starter for the first time ever, and proceeded to score 23 and 35 points in his next two games. The 25-year-old forward ranks 15th in the NBA with 23.8 points per game. He also ranks 24th in offensive efficiency (22.9) this season. The Toronto Raptors welcome the Atlanta Hawks to Canada tonight in what should an offensively-inclined game. The over/under is set at 233, and Toronto has averaged 120.5 points in the last two meetings versus Atlanta. The Hawks are ranked 28th in defensive rating (113.3), and allow the second-most points in the paint per game (53.4). Siakam ranks 18th in the league with 11.1 of his 23.8 points (46.6%) scored in the paint.
Siakam has averaged 25.3 points over his last three games. He has played the Hawks twice this season and averaged 26 points on 54.8% shooting from the field. numberFire's model projects Siakam to score 23.7 points at home versus the Hawks tonight, hitting the over. At home, Siakam is averaging more points (24.2), better field goal percentage (46.9%), three-point shooting (38.9%), and free-throw percentage (85%) on the season. Back Spicy P at home against a bad defense.
Draymond Green, Over 5.5 Rebounds
Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors travel to the city of brotherly love to take on the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are down Joel Embiid and Josh Richardson, giving Green the responsibility of guarding either Tobias Harris or Ben Simmons. Against either, he should have his fair share of rebounding opportunities. Green is projected to record 5.6 rebounds tonight by numberFire's model, but there are a couple of key stats I like that should lead to the over here.
Green grabbed six rebounds in his last game and at least six boards in six of his last eight games total. The 76ers, as a team, have allowed nine players to record six or more rebounds in their last three contests alone. Last season, Green averaged 8.5 rebounds in two games versus Philly, and without Embiid this time around, I have to back Green once again. The Warriors are 21st in rebounding per game (43.9), while Green is averaging 6.3 on the season. I expect Green to battle with Ben Simmons and Al Horford for the game-high in rebounding tonight.
Brandon Ingram, Under 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Brandon Ingram is hoping to be selected as an All-Star reserve this week after a phenomenal first half of the season with the New Orleans Pelicans. Ingram has averaged 25 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.3 assists this season. That said, since Zion Williamson made his debut, Ingram's totals have suffered the most of any teammate. Ingram has averaged 17 points, 3.3 assists, and 2.6 rebounds in his last three games and recorded his second-lowest point total of the season versus the Denver Nuggets on Friday (13 points).
numberFire's model projects Ingram to record 24.6 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.1 rebounds, which would result in him hitting the over. However, after three-straight games scoring under 23 points, I'm selling Ingram's stock as he most likely peaked statistically this season. He hasn't gone over 28 total points, rebounds, and assists in the past three games while shooting 38.5% or worse in all three. Ingram hasn't grabbed more than three rebounds in his last three games, and he's recorded more than three assists in one of those three games. This may still be Ingram's team, but for now, the Zion show will continue while the Ingram show quietly fades away.