3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 1/14/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
James Harden, Over 38.5 Points
I love Russell Westbrook, but when I hear that he's sitting out, I sit up like a dog hearing the word treat. It's James Harden time. Batman doesn't need his Robin tonight, and Harden has proved he is more than willing to make up the production. Without Westbrook in Houston's win over Atlanta, Harden attempted 20 three-pointers making four (20%). He still scored 41 points hitting his over, something he hasn't done in two games. Against the Detroit Pistons is another example of how Harden scored 39 points and shot at will without Westbrook making 14-of-his-33 shot attempts (42.4%).
Harden is averaging career-highs with 37.7 points, 5.1 made threes, and 13.5 three-point attempts per game. It's no secret he shoots at will, but 52 attempted three-pointers in his last four games is a ridiculous rate no matter who you are. I expect Harden to chase 50 points if he catches a flow early enough and he's averaging more on the road (38.7) than home (36.7) this season. Harden averaged 47.3 points in four games versus the Grizzlies last season making 6-of-12.8 three-point attempts per game (47%). Our model projects Harden to score 36.5 points and 3.4 made three-pointers hitting the under. Even with that said, you can expect Harden to take over a dozen three-point attempts tonight and I'll ride his over without his Robin tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Over 12.5 Rebounds
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks welcome the Knicks to Milwaukee, a team that Giannis dominated last season for 31.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in four games. Giannis recorded at least 14 rebounds in all four games against the Knicks last season and he's recorded at least 10 rebounds in 10-straight games versus the Knicks. In the first meeting of the season, Giannis scored 29 points and grabbed 15 rebounds in Milwaukee -- and in the second he scored 22 and grabbed 11 boards in New York.
The Bucks lead the league in rebounding per game (51.6) and defensive rebounds per game (41.8) while the Knicks lead the NBA in offensive rebounds per game (12.1). Giannis ranks sixth himself across the league with 12.8 rebounds per game and 15 in his first meeting with the Knicks this season. At home, Giannis is averaging 13 rebounds per game in 18 games and his total has gone over 12.5 boards in 11-of-18 games. In five of the seven times Giannis failed to record 13 rebounds, he recorded 10 or 11 rebounds in those games. I like Giannis to attack the boards and this to be a more competitive game than the first two meetings.
Luka Doncic, Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers
Luka Doncic has been a road warrior this season averaging 30.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 9.6 assists away from Dallas. Tonight, the Mavs take on Golden State in Chase Arena for the second time this year. The two teams have met twice already with Dallas winning both with Doncic putting on MVP-type performances. He's averaging 33 points, 13 assists, and 11 rebounds in both games versus the Warriors while making five three-pointers in Golden State and six in Dallas. He also made at least three triples in two of three meetings during his rookie season making two three-pointers in the lone under.
Doncic is settling on three-point shot attempts more often away from Dallas (10.2) than at home (8.3) this season, and he's making more on the road (3.4) than at home (2.6) as a result of that. Doncic is averaging 30.4 points on the road in 14 games compared to 28.3 in 21 home games and this will be the first road game of 2020 for the Mavericks. They opened the New Year on a six-game home-stand that featured Doncic nailing 15 three-pointers in the first three games, then three makes over the last three of the home-stand. The Warriors are ranked 29th in opponent's three-point percentage (37.8%), and 28th in opponent's three-pointers made per game (13.2) so Doncic could again go for four or five made triples.