3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 1/8/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
James Harden, Over 38.5 Points
James Harden and the Houston Rockets are without Russell Westbrook tonight versus the Atlanta Hawks, giving Harden the go-ahead to completely run the show. He's averaging an NBA-best 38.4 points per game, and he's fresh off his first 40-point triple-double of the season. Versus the Philadelphia 76ers, Harden scored 44 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and dished out 11 assists, going 13 for 24 (54.2%) from the field, 6 of 12 from deep (50%), and a perfect 12 for 12 from the free-throw line.
The Rockets lead the league in three-point attempts (44.3) per game, while Harden has attempted at least 10 three-pointers in 9 of his last 10 games. The Hawks are ninth in three-point attempts per game (35.1), and both teams are top five in pace factor, with Houston ranking second (105.9) and Atlanta fifth (105.4). Harden has gone over 38.5 twice in his past three games, and ultimately, with Westbrook sitting this one out, you almost have to take Harden to go over his per game average.
Lonzo Ball, Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Lonzo Ball has posted four straight games of 20 or more points and recorded a near triple-double in his last game out versus the Utah Jazz with 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists. Over his last four, he's averaged 23.7 points, 8 assists, and 6.5 rebounds -- hitting the over in all four games. In his last game against the Rockets, Ball recorded a triple-double of 27-10-10 and hit a career-high seven three-pointers. That started Ball's stellar run with the Pelicans, as he's averaged 4.2 made threes a game since, in addition to shooting 53.6% from the field.
Ball his hit the over on his points, assists, and rebounds combined total in three of his last four games. He, along with the Pelicans offense, are one of the hottest topics across the league. In Ball's last four starts, the Pelicans average 120.7 points per game compared to their 112.8 average on the season. The Chicago Bulls rank ninth in points allowed (107.2) and will attempt to slow down the sixth-fastest paced offense (105.3) in the league. Our model projects Ball at a combined 26.7 points, rebounds, and assists -- just hitting the under. That said, I like his stretch of good play to continue tonight at home.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Over 1.5 Made Threes
LaMarcus Aldridge and three-pointers isn't usually uttered much in the same sentence, but what you're about to read will surprise you if you're not a San Antonio Spurs fan. Aldridge is making 69.6% of his three-pointers over the last five games, hitting 16 of 23 treys. He's hit multiple three-pointers in his last three games overall, four of the last five, and five of the last seven games. In LAM's last five road games, he's attempted 19 total three-pointers and hit two or more threes in three of those contests. He's averaging 3.8 three-point attempts over his last five road games and 4.6 attempts in his last five overall.
This season, Aldridge is at a career-high 45.9% from deep on 2.2 attempts per game. He's been heating up over the past five games with averages of 19.4 points and 10 rebounds. He's attempted more threes (23) than free-throws (15) in his last five. The Celtics rank 18th in three-pointers allowed per game (34.0) and 10th in three-point percentage (34.3%). Aldridge did have his worst performance of the season in a loss to the Celtics in San Antonio in November, scoring three points and grabbing four rebounds. That said, in his lone game in Boston last season, he scored 48 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in a win on March 24th. I'm not saying he will replicate that, but I do expect a big game from him, and our model similarly predicts 19.9 points and 8.4 rebounds.