NBA

NBA Odds Update: The Celtics Are Here to Stay

Elisha Twerski  —  @ElishaTwerski Dec 30th, 2019
Led by Kemba Walker, the Boston Celtics continue to see their title odds rise. Which other teams saw movement in their odds?

In this edition of the NBA Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their odds move the most since our last update.

Teams that had strong weeks and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those who had it rough could see their odds spiraling.

If you want to see our odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. Here's a look at the five teams who had their title odds move by more than one percentage point.

Los Angeles Lakers

FanDuel Title Odds: +320
numberFire Champs Probability: 18.9%

The Los Angeles Lakers still boast the second-best championship odds per our models. That said, LeBron James and co. experienced a drop by eight percentage points over the last two weeks. Los Angeles recently lost four in a row, including two big losses to teams that they'll likely have to beat in order to win a title. The Lakers' net rating is down nearly three points over that time, and they've scored fewer than their season average in seven of their last nine games. Similar to our models, Online Sportsbook still gives the Lakers the second-best odds of winning the title, though at +320, the Clippers might be the better bet.

Milwaukee Bucks

FanDuel Title Odds: +300
numberFire Champs Probability: 34.4%

A fluky loss to the Philadelphia 76ers didn't stop the Milwaukee Bucks from seeing their odds rise once again. Milwaukee's 34.4 percent title probability is nearly twice that of the next closest team. The Bucks have been dominant at home as well as on the road, and they currently have a 2.5 game lead for home-court throughout the entirety of the postseason. In Milwaukee's loss to the Sixers, Philadelphia tied a franchise record for threes, and given the makeup of their team, that's definitely a fluke. Additionally, Giannis Antetokounmpo has attempted 20-plus shots 94 times in his career, and that game was just the sixth time he failed to hit at least 38 percent of those attempts. Again, a fluke. The Deer's net rating is now 4.9 points higher than the next closest team.

Philadelphia 76ers

FanDuel Title Odds: +950
numberFire Champs Probability: 4.1%

Speaking of the 76ers, they saw the second-biggest drop in title odds over the last two weeks. While Philadelphia did beat Milwaukee, they have since lost two in a row. With those two losses, the 76ers move to 7-10 on the road this season. Given that they most likely won't have home-court for most of the postseason, the odds of them winning a series against an elite team are quite low. The Sixers' net rating is fifth in the Eastern Conference -- not the league, just the East. Philadelphia is 12th in the league in true shooting percentage, 14th in offensive rating, and 23rd in turnover percentage. They're far from efficient offensively, and they struggle to win on the road. That's not a good combination for the playoffs.

Boston Celtics

FanDuel Title Odds: +2500
numberFire Champs Probability: 7.1%

This month alone, the Boston Celtics have beaten the Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks, and Toronto Raptors. That's definitely factored into their 1.7 percent increase in title odds. Boston is second in the East with a net rating of 7.5 and third overall. Unlike their East-rival 76ers, the Celtics have displayed the ability to win both at and away from home. Brad Stevens' squad is fourth in both offensive and defensive rating, and they turn the ball over at the fifth-lowest clip in the league. At 25/1, Boston is as good a value bet as there is in the East right now.

Dallas Mavericks

FanDuel Title Odds: +4200
numberFire Champs Probability: 4.2%

No odds are juicier than the Dallas Mavericks' 42/1. Can any other team claim that they've gone on the road and beaten the Lakers, 76ers, and Bucks...just this month? The Mavs have two superstars and have beaten nearly every single legitimate title contender. Their 7.6 net rating is second to only the Bucks, and their 115.3 offensive rating is best in the league. Dallas also leads the league with the lowest turnover percentage, is third in true and effective field goal percentage, fifth in rebounding, and sixth in three-point percentage. Their numberFire championship odds have risen by more than four percentage points this month, and they sure are playing like they are the real deal. At +4200, they're certainly worth a wager.