NBA
Using Math to Change the Kevin Love Playoff Narrative
Kevin Love has been criticized for his lack of playoff appearances, but math says even history's greatest would've had the same problems in Minnesota.

It's always difficult to evaluate an individual player in a team sport. In a team-less sport like golf, it’s easy – how many wins and majors do you have at the end of your career? But even having one extra person on your team introduces a large amount of variables.

And even in the context of a team, it’s difficult to navigate through good context and noise. For example, many basketball fans and analysts have criticized basketball-reference.com. Then we'll compare these all-time great seasons to Kevin Love and see whether he is truly at fault for the Timberwolves not making the playoffs.

PlayerSeasonOWSDWSWS
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar1971-197218.37.125.4
Wilt Chamberlain1963-196414.410.625.0
George Mikan1950-195116.07.423.4
Wilt Chamberlain1961-196217.16.023.1
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar1970-197117.05.322.3
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar1972-197314.47.521.9
Wilt Chamberlain1966-196714.87.021.9
Wilt Chamberlain1965-196612.98.521.4
Michael Jordan1987-198815.26.121.2
George Mikan1949-195015.35.821.1

Most of these best-ever seasons came early in the history of the NBA when there was less competition. The only two modern players (1985-present) to have a 20-plus win share season are Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Now let’s do some math.

How Does Love Stack Up?

The Timberwolves won 40 games this year with Love. If we had a machine that let us jump into a parallel universe where 1988 Michael Jordan (his best statistical year) switched places with 2014 Kevin Love (in this hypothetical, ignore positions. This is solely about math.), the Timberwolves would’ve won approximately 47 or 48 games. The Phoenix Suns missed the playoffs with 49 wins.

Sure, the Timberwolves lost a lot of close games and you can try to claim the “clutch factor” or something that would vault them even higher. Even so, with the best player ever, in his best statistical season ever, the Timberwolves still would’ve missed the playoffs last year.

Although Kobe Bryant fans will gasp at this, last year's Kevin Love would've been the best player on those Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol-led championship Laker teams. In fact, no season of Kobe's ever would have been good enough to take the Timberwolves to the playoffs. Context.

Perhaps if we substituted 2014 Kevin Love with 1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, the Timberwolves would’ve made the playoffs. However, that's assuming Kareem would have the same impact (not likely, in my opinion), and even so, it would put the Timberwolves at 51 wins – tied with Golden State for sixth in the West. I repeat, the greatest win share season in the history of basketball in an age of less competitive basketball still would have barely made the playoffs and not been above a six-seed.

Thus, the argument that Kevin Love is somehow a bad player because he never made the playoffs is officially over. There is just zero math that backs it up.

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