NBA Odds Update: Cool Hand Luka
In this edition of the NBA Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their odds move the most since our last update.
Teams that had strong weeks and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those who had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see our odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings.
FanDuel Title Odds: +1800 (from +1300)
numberFire Champs Probability: 5.6% (from 9.2%)
After appearing in this piece last week's as one of the league's top risers, the Utah Jazz make an appearance as the biggest dropper this week.
The Jazz did go 3-1 this week, though their last five games have been anything but inspiring. After losing consecutive games to the Grizzlies and Timberwolves, Utah scraped out three straight wins against the Timberwolves, Warriors, and Pelicans. Barely beating weak opponents, as well as having the league's ninth-worst offensive rating, is not the recipe for a title contender.
Five of Utah's next six games are against the Bucks, Pacers, Raptors, 76ers, and Lakers. They'll need a good showing in at least a couple of those to not see their odds drop even more.
FanDuel Title Odds: +550
numberFire Champs Probability: 18% (from 16.2%)
For the third consecutive week, the Milwaukee Bucks saw their championship odds jump by 1.8 percent or more.
Atop the Eastern Conference and riding a seven-game win streak, Milwaukee has picked up right where they left off last season. In 12 November games, Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 32 points, 14 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.7 assists while shooting 57 percent from the field and 33 percent from downtown. Coincidentally (not), Milwaukee's record in those 12 games is 11-1.
Milwaukee's nERD rating -- which is our efficiency metric based on in-game data -- is a league-high 78.3. nERD is indicative of a team's expected winning percentage, so an average team will have a nERD score of 50.0. According to my brilliant math, the Bucks are above average...by a lot.
FanDuel Title Odds: +6500
numberFire Champs Probability: 1.3% (from 0%)
The Dallas Mavericks have won five games in a row, including victories over the Toronto Raptors, San Antonio Spurs, and Houston Rockets, as well as 48 and 42-point thrashings of the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, respectively. That's an impressive stretch, to say the least.
Speaking of impressive, let's talk about Luka Doncic. Actually, impressive doesn't do his play justice. We'd be better off using astounding, awe-inspiring, mind-blowing, flabbergasting, or amazeballs (thank you, thesaurus). Over these last five games, Doncic has posted averages of 34.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 10.8 assists, and 1.6 steals on 53 percent shooting and 42 percent from three. Amazeballs indeed.
Doncic hasn't been the Mavericks' only impressive player during that stretch, as Kristaps Porzingis has posted 18.4 points and 11 rebounds while shooting nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc.
The Mavericks might be a piece or two away from being true contenders, but at +6500, they're worth a wager -- especially if they're able to add those pieces prior to February's trade deadline.