3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 11/13/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kemba Walker, Over 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Kemba Walker and the Boston Celtics have won eight straight games, and with Gordon Hayward out and Jaylen Brown returning, they haven't skipped a beat. Walker has replaced Kyrie Irving smoothly and his stats reflect that. He's averaging 25.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists on the season, and in the past two games, he's shooting 50 percent from three and 49 percent from the field to go along with 27.5 points, 6.5 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game. The over/under totals on Walker have gone up because of his recent play, but he's totaled 36 or more in six of nine games this season.
The Wizards are rank and an unimpressive 28th in defensive net rating (112.7) and 15th in turnover percentage (15.4%) with Bradley Beal and Isaiah Thomas in the backcourt. All eyes will be on Thomas, but Walker is the one we should be watching. Our model projects Walker as the third-highest scorer tonight and backs the over with 28.7 points, 5.4 assists, 5.2 rebounds hitting a total of 39.3.
James Harden, Under 44.5 Points + Assists
James Harden has scored 29 or more points in nine straight games for the Houston Rockets and is at an NBA-best 37.3 points per game. He has the highest player usage rating (39.5), T-1st in made threes (42), 4th in player efficiency rating (29.53), and 6th in assists (8.3), and we could go on and on about him, but you see the point.
In the month of November (six games) he's averaging 37.7 points, 8.0 assists and 6.2 rebounds and has hit 44 or over total points and assists in 7 of 10 games this season, including 7 of the last 8. Harden has attempted 14.5 threes per game and 14.2 free throw attempts per game in his last six and will host Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. Patrick Beverley and Leonard will take turns guarding Harden every possession, and this could be his first under since the season-opening loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.
Our model projects Harden at 31.9 points and 7.7 assists tonight hitting the under, but no computer can predict the scoring output he has each night to be fair. He's a video game talent and FanDuel has raised Harden's over/under in points up to 37.5 tonight. This was a tough one because Harden can light any team up, but if Leonard suits up in the first of a back-to-back then I'm going under. If he rests, which there's no inclination of that so far, I'd have to go over.
D'Angelo Russell, Over 26.5 Points
D'Angelo Russell is Mr. Do It All right now for the Warriors, but he's been in this position before. Russell returns to his former home to play his old team the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers beat the Phoenix Suns Tuesday night 123-115 while the Warriors had the night off. In a second night of a back-to-back, Russell will attempt to capitalize on the Lakers' fatigue and minimal game planning. Russell has averaged 26.3 points on the season but has averaged 36.3 points in the Warriors' last four games. He's hit the over in four straight compared to the under in his first four games with 16.3 points per game.
Russell is attempting 11.3 three-pointers over his past four, and he's taking 26.3 shots attempts while getting to the free throw line 7.2 times per game. He's the primary scorer next to Eric Paschall and Draymond Green, so he's bound to take at least 20 shots a night. Our daily projection gives Russell 21.3 points tonight, hitting the under, but I like the chances Russell tries to keep this game respectable against his former team and eclipse his 20.5 field attempts per game average.