3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on 11/11/19
"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."
- Kobayashi (The Usual Suspects)
When it's time to start building DFS tournament lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.
This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. The Usual DFSuspects, if you will. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, we will examine the contrarian plays away from the night's chalk.
Let's look at plays for each position on Monday's FanDuel main slate.
Dejounte Murray ($6,700) - Considering the Houston Rockets - New Orleans Pelicans game has an implied total more than 20 (!!!) points higher than the next closest game, it's going to be awfully hard to fade any of James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Jrue Holiday, or Brandon Ingram. That said, paying down for a player like Murray in a plus matchup is an effective way to be able to open up dollars to be able to pay for those studs.
For as outstanding as Ja Morant has been as an offensive player in the minutes he's been given, he has been below average in individual defensive rating and primarily responsible for the Memphis Grizzlies allowing the fifth-most FanDuel points to the point guard position this season. Dejounte Murray continues to average more than 1.40 fantasy points per minute and is starting to see his minutes creep up into the 25-26 range. Play him with confidence, as the San Antonio Spurs come into the night with a strong 117 implied total of their own.
Pascal Siakam ($9,700) - Siakam is finally priced the like the superstar he is becoming, and his recent performances prove that he is now a bonafide stud in this league. With Kyle Lowry on the shelf for the next few weeks, these 50-point FanDuel performances we have seen in his last three contests should be much more familiar. Siakam has the highest usage rate and fantasy points per minute of any power forward on the slate, and it's not particularly close.
According to NBA Wowy, Siakam's fantasy points per minute with Lowry off the floor jump from 1.26 to 1.46. In a game where the Toronto Raptors are large underdogs on the road against the Los Angeles Clippers, they will need to rely heavily on Siakam to stay competitive.
Clint Capela ($9,300) - I don't like the price on Capela at all -- he has clearly been priced up for this pristine matchup -- but he is a way to get a piece of the Rockets/Pelicans game. Capela is a solid contrarian play away from the Karl-Anthony Towns and Andre Drummond matchup chalk.
After a relatively slow start to the season, Capela has exploded the last two games, averaging 57 FanDuel points per game -- as he learns to adapt to the Westbrook-Harden combo and where he can fit into the spacing on the floor. Derrick Favors -- the primary defender on Capela tonight -- is a bottom-12 forward in defensive rating this season and will have his hands full trying to defend the paint from Harden and Westbrook's penetration. That will make it more difficult for Favors to keep tabs on Capela for lobs and rebounds.