FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 11/7/19
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's main slate.
|Oklahoma City||San Antonio||211.5||-4.5||103.50||108.00||26||12|
|Boston||Enes Kanter (GTD; Knee), Daniel Theis (GTD; Ankle), Robert Williams (GTD; Hip)|
|Charlotte||P.J. Washington (GTD; Lower leg), Nicolas Batum (O; Finger)|
|LA Clippers||Paul George (O; Shoulder)|
|Miami||Derrick Jones (GTD; Groin), KZ Okpala (O; Achilles)|
|Oklahoma City||Andre Roberson (O; Knee), Mike Muscala (GTD; Hand)|
|Phoenix||Deandre Ayton (O; Suspension), Ty Jerome (O; Ankle)|
|Portland||Pau Gasol (O; Foot), Zach Collins (O; Shoulder)|
|San Antonio||Derrick White (GTD; Lower body)|
We don't have an abundance of studs on the slate, but with Kawhi Leonard ($10,800) back after a load management game on Wednesday, he sure qualifies. Leonard has averaged 1.76 FanDuel points per minute on a 39.0% usage rate. It's hard to ignore him tonight given the rest of the small forward pool. In my simulations, Leonard's 25th-percentile outcome is higher than any other small forward's 75th-percentile outcome.
After Leonard, the best options are some combination of Miles Bridges ($5,300), Rudy Gay ($5,000), and Kelly Oubre ($6,500). They rate out with the best floor/ceiling combinations among small forwards in my simulations. Blazers options Rodney Hood ($4,400) and Kent Bazemore ($4,000) grade out well enough for consideration, especially if stacking that Blazers/Clippers game, which isn't a bad idea.
If fading Leonard on a short slate and seeking upside, the best 75th-percentile values in my model belong to Bridges, Oubre, Hood, Gay, and Danilo Gallinari ($6,200), but I'd be inclined to target Gordon Hayward ($7,400), Oubre, and Gallinari for the sheer fantasy point upside.
Core Plays: Kawhi Leonard, Miles Bridges, Kelly Oubre
Secondary Plays: Rudy Gay, Rodney Hood, Kent Bazemore
Tournament Plays: Gordon Hayward, Danilo Gallinari
If you can only roster one stud, Leonard should probably take priority over Damian Lillard ($10,300). Lillard has averaged 1.36 FanDuel points per minute on a 28.9% usage rate, but until more value opens up, he's hard to get to.
The Clippers' guards on the other side of that game -- Patrick Beverley ($5,300) and Landry Shamet ($3,700) -- grade out at the top. Beverley is more efficient per minute (0.81 FanDuel points compared to 0.48 for Shamet) and should be the preference for a high floor.
After Beverley, Ricky Rubio ($7,000) and Terry Rozier ($7,600) stand out. Rubio has yet to post fewer than 30 FanDuel points and has averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute on the season. Rozier has topped 34 FanDuel points in three straight and owns a 24.2% usage rate, and gets a revenge game against the Boston Celtics.
Kemba Walker ($9,500) is in a revenge spot against the Charlotte Hornets and has the second-best 75th-percentile outcome among point guards, though paying off his tag will require a ceiling game. There's tournament appeal.
Core Plays: Patrick Beverley, Ricky Rubio, Terry Rozier
Secondary Plays: Damian Lillard, Landry Shamet
Tournament Plays: Kemba Walker, Chris Paul ($7,300)
Even with Kawhi back, Lou Williams ($6,700) is in play at this salary. Williams' minutes should be closer to 30 than the 39 he had last night, but he still boasts 1.03 FanDuel points per minute on a 29.9% usage rate. On the other side of the game, C.J. McCollum ($6,400) is my second-favorite shooting guard option tonight. McCollum has turned a 26.6% usage rate into just 0.81 FanDuel points per minute, but the extra possessions and points can help him overcome the efficiency issues.
Though those two are at the top, our mid-range in the salary pool, DeMar DeRozan ($8,100) and Devin Booker ($8,700), are priced well and can pay off those tags. DeRozan is in a pace-down spot against the NBA's second-best defense but still owns a 26.4% usage rate. Booker has managed 1.08 FanDuel points per minute and is fourth in 75th-percentile outcome value. He's a great tournament play if we can get there.
Power forward is kind of boring. If not spending up, there's a lot of risk.
At the top of the power forward pool, we have Bam Adebayo ($8,400), LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,000), and Jayson Tatum ($8,000). Adebayo (1.22 FanDuel points per minute), Aldridge (1.03), and Tatum (1.08) are all viable in their respective matchups. My model ranks them: Aldridge, Tatum, Adebayo.
JaMychal Green ($4,100) pops a bit again today, though he was a bit of a letdown last night with 16.4 FanDuel points in 32 minutes. He's far from a must play. Dario Saric ($5,100) is about as erratic as they come. That has value if he hits a peak game on a short slate, but if seeking a high floor, we should probably just spend up at power forward tonight.
The top center play is looking like Montrezl Harrell ($6,900) against the Blazers in that high-totaled game. Harrell has churned out 1.18 FanDuel points per minute this season, and the Blazers are 26th in rebounding rate and 21st in defensive rating. He's my top center value -- as well as numberFire's.
After Harrell, Hassan Whiteside ($7,500) is firmly in play in that game, as well. Whiteside has averaged 1.27 FanDuel points per minute on the year in an average of 25.9 minutes per game. They're the top two plays by a decent margin.
Core Plays: Montrezl Harrell, Hassan Whiteside
Secondary Plays: Cody Zeller, Steven Adams
Tournament Plays: Ivica Zubac, Meyers Leonard