FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 11/6/19
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's main slate.
|Atlanta||John Collins (O; Suspension), Evan Turner (O; Achilles),
Allen Crabbe (O; Knee), Chandler Parsons (O; Knee),
Cameron Reddish (GTD; Shoulder)
|Dallas||Maxi Kleber (GTD; Knee)|
|Detroit||Blake Griffin (O; Hamstring), Derrick Rose (O; Hamstring),
Reggie Jackson (O; Back), Tim Frazier (O; Shoulder)
|Golden State||Stephen Curry (O; Hand), D'Angelo Russell (O; Ankle),
Draymond Green (O; Finger), Kevon Looney (O; Hamstring),
Jacob Evans (O; Hip), Alen Smailagic (O; Ankle)
|Houston||Gerald Green (O; Foot), Nene (O; Hip),
Eric Gordon (GTD; Hamstring), Michael Frazier (GTD; Ankle)
|Indiana||Edmond Sumner (O; Hand), Victor Oladipo (O; Knee),
Domantas Sabonis (GTD; Calf), Jeremy Lamb (GTD; Ankle),
Myles Turner (GTD; Ankle)
|LA Clippers||Kawhi Leonard (O; Rest), Paul George (O; Shoulder)|
|Memphis||Andre Iguodala (O; Doesn't want to play for Memphis),
Grayson Allen (O; Ankle)
|Minnesota||Jeff Teague (GTD; Illness), Shabazz Napier (GTD; Hamstring),
Jordan Bell (GTD; Shoulder)
|New York||Elfrid Payton (O; Hamstring), Reggie Bullock (O; Back),
Dennis Smith (GTD; Personal), Kadeem Allen (GTD; Knee)
|Orlando||Terrence Ross (O; Knee), Mo Bamba (O; Rest),
Melvin Frazier (GTD; Shoulder)
|Philadelphia||Shake Milton (O; Knee)|
|Sacramento||Marvin Bagley (O; Finger), Harry Giles (GTD; Knee)|
|Toronto||Patrick McCaw (O; Knee)|
|Utah||Emmanuel Mudiay (O; Hamstring), Ed Davis (O; Lower leg),
Dante Exum (GTD; Knee)
|Washington||Ian Mahinmi (O; Achilles), Jordan McRae (GTD; Finger)|
We've got Lou Williams ($6,700) without Kawhi Leonard tonight, so that's fun. Williams, in 266 possessions without Leonard on the court, has a 36.5% usage rate, according to NBAWowy.com. It's a pace-up game for the Los Angeles Clippers, and Williams' price is more than fair in this spot. He's third in numberFire's value projections for the full slate, and he's first in my model as well.
Bruce Brown Jr. ($5,300) is also a cheaper shooting guard option against the New York Knicks. Brown has played 40 and 36 minutes the past two games with 20 and 12 shot attempts, respectively, while contributing with assists (14) and steals (4). The Detroit Pistons' backcourt is decimated, so Brown is projectable for minutes in the mid 30s tonight.
We shouldn't overlook James Harden ($11,500) even in a game with massive blowout risk against the Golden State Warriors. There isn't even a total for the game yet. Harden has posted an absurd 1.48 FanDuel points per minute mark on the season while struggling to find his shot in the early going. He has no fewer than 12 free throw attempts in a game.
These three are a full tier ahead of the rest of the player pool tonight. Jordan Poole ($3,800) rates out as a secondary type of play, and numberFire's algorithm loves Tony Snell ($3,600), giving him the best projected value of the night among all positions.
With Harden's blowout risk, I think there's merit to spending up for the other stud guards in tournaments to differentiate, particularly Bradley Beal ($8,900), whose 75th-percentile outcome ranks second among the position, according to my model.
Small forward is pretty deep tonight, though we have Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) at the top in a game against the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard. Among all small forwards on FanDuel, other than Antetokounmpo's 63.6, only Pascal Siakam ($9,000) has a 75th-percentile outcome above 40 tonight (Siakam is at 47.5).
The best per-dollar plays at the position in my model are cheaper: Markieff Morris ($4,300), Jarrett Culver ($3,500), Luke Kennard ($5,500), Maurice Harkless ($3,600), Troy Brown ($4,000), and Cam Reddish ($4,200). numberFire's top-three small forwards by value are Reddish, Morris, Glenn Robinson III ($4,800), and De'Andre Hunter ($5,100).
This makes Antetokounmpo not a core play but a secondary or tournament type of play given the nature of the position.
Core Plays: Cam Reddish, Markieff Morris, Jarrett Culver
Secondary Plays: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Maurice Harkless, Luke Kennard
Tournament Plays: Pascal Siakam, T.J. Warren ($6,800), Troy Brown, De'Andre Hunter
Center is also deep -- especially at the top. Andre Drummond ($11,400) gets the Knicks, who are 7th in rebounding rate but 21st in defensive rating. Karl-Anthony Towns ($11,000) faces the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 21st cleaning the glass and 17th in defensive rating. Towns (1.85 FanDuel points per minute) ranks third on the season. Drummond (1.59) is top-10 himself. They're both top-five in my model for the night; Drummond ranks first.
Three other centers separate from the pack: Dwight Powell ($4,400), Montrezl Harrell ($7,000), and Jonas Valanciunas ($6,000). Powell is down to 0.60 FanDuel points per minute this season but was up at 1.02 last year, and if Maxi Kleber misses, the minutes should get close to 30. Harrell has a 30.1% usage rate on the season without Leonard. Valanciunas owns a strong 1.27 FanDuel points per minute himself but only gets minutes in the mid 20s.
Core Plays: Andre Drummond, Dwight Powell, Montrezl Harrell
Secondary Plays: Karl-Anthony Towns, Jonas Valanciunas
Tournament Plays: Joel Embiid, Myles Turner ($6,600 -- check the injury report), Rudy Gobert ($8,200)
Among the pricey point guards, the two best plays to me are Russell Westbrook ($10,300) and Malcolm Brogdon ($9,000). Westbrook's 1.51 FanDuel points per minute means he can do damage even if there's a blowout coming against the Warriors. Brogdon has a 27.2% usage rate and just posted his fourth straight game with at least 21 points.
The top values after those two -- for me -- are Landry Shamet ($3,700), Patrick Beverley ($5,400), and Coby White ($3,900). Neither Shamet nor Beverley post high usages without Lenard but do project for 30-plus minutes. White should see plenty of possessions in a back-and-forth game with the Atlanta Hawks.
Core Plays: Malcolm Brogdon, Russell Westbrook, Landry Shamet
Secondary Plays: Patrick Beverley, Coby White, Jeff Teague ($6,000)
Tournament Plays: Luka Doncic ($11,000), Kyle Lowry ($8,700), Mike Conley ($7,000)
JaMychal Green ($4,000) pops as the top power forward play on the slate. Without Leonard, he has a fine 17.0% usage rate but 1.01 FanDuel points per minute. numberFire projects him for 5.70 FanDuel points per $1,000, a pretty elite baseline number.
Julius Randle rates out second even at his price of $7,100. That's down $1,200 from where it was on October 28th. Randle has still managed 0.94 FanDuel points per minute despite 16 or fewer actual points in every game since the opener.
After those two, it's a bit of a dip in my model to the rest of the power forward field, though Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,100), Richaun Holmes ($6,400), and Royce O'Neale ($3,800) are options at differing price points.
With the top of the position being pretty bland, we can spend down primarily, though Jabari Parker ($7,100) is still in play with his price bump. He shot up from $5,000 yesterday after getting 31.5 minutes. John Collins' suspension clears the path for Parker and his 23.4% usage rate.