FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 11/5/19
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's main slate.
Here are some (maybe not all) of the (bigger) injuries to monitor for today's slate.
Justise Winslow ($6,400) and Derrick Jones Jr. ($3,500) are questionable for the Miami Heat. Jimmy Butler ($9,500), Kendrick Nunn ($5,600), and Tyler Herro ($5,800) are the beneficiaries with some trickle toward Duncan Robinson ($4,400) as well.
Steven Adams ($6,300) participated in practice yesterday. Nerlens Noel ($5,600) didn't practice. If Adams doesn't play but Noel does, we should take notice, but the practice report doesn't suggest that's likely.
Power forward is interesting tonight because we have Anthony Davis ($11,900) but also some of the best value plays on the board overall with Jabari Parker ($4,800) and Daniel Theis ($4,200).
Parker has averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute, and numberFire projects him for 31.9 minutes. Theis has played 28 and 27 minutes the past two games and should see safe minutes without Kanter.
Davis has yet to return fewer than 45 FanDuel points and plays in his hometown tonight against Chicago. His 75th-percentile outcome (61.8 in my model) is the only mark above 48 at the position.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,700) has a soft matchup with the Hawks without Collins. He has posted 1.02 FanDuel points per minute over 32.3 minutes per game.
Center is pretty underwhelming.
Nikola Jokic ($9,200) is priced down to reflect his production (39.4 FanDuel points per game but 1.28 FanDuel points per minute). The Heat are fourth in defensive rating and third in rebounding rate, so the matchup isn't stellar.
Alex Len ($4,300) should see a boost without John Collins and is numberFire's second-best center value, and assuming Kanter is out, there will be chances for Robert Williams ($3,900). He has posted 1.28 FanDuel points per minute and projects for around 18 minutes.
The three spendy point guards -- Trae Young ($9,200), Kemba Walker ($9,100), and Malcolm Brogdon ($9,000) -- all grade out well enough to consider them borderline core plays, but Young should be the preference of the three, as he has the best floor/ceiling combo among them, per my model.
We don't really have to go there, though, as Jamal Murray ($6,500) owns a 26.4% usage rate with 0.93 FanDuel points per minute and should benefit if Will Barton does miss.
Three strong value plays pop, as well: Coby White ($3,700), Darius Garland ($4,000), and D.J. Augustin ($3,700). They're numberFire's top three point guard values. I'd throw Markelle Fultz ($4,700) in there, too, as he is starting and has a respectable 19.9% usage rate on the season.
Core Plays: Jamal Murray, Trae Young, Coby White
Secondary Plays: Kemba Walker, Darius Garland, Markelle Fultz
Tournament Plays: Malcolm Brogdon, D.J. Augustin, Dejounte Murray ($7,000)
Shooting guard is another underwhelming spot on this six-game slate, so much so that it's hard to pinpoint favorite plays.
With that said, the top play for me is DeMar DeRozan ($7,600) against the Hawks. He has cleared 29 minutes in every game with an average of 33.3. That's tied to a 27.1% usage rate and 0.98 FanDuel points per minute.
Marcus Smart's price is up to $5,600 from $4,900 last game and $4,500 the game prior, but he has averaged 31.5 minutes and 26.1 FanDuel points. numberFire projects him for nearly 32 minutes against the NBA's 23rd-ranked defense.
Dwayne Bacon ($4,700) is coming off a 37-minute outing with 21 shot attempts (his second game with that many this year), and his price is down more than $1,000 from its max this year after a slump. We can buy low in a pace-up game against the Indiana Pacers.
Core Plays: DeMar DeRozan, Marcus Smart, Dwayne Bacon
Secondary Plays: Kevin Huerter ($4,100), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,300), Danny Green ($4,300)
Tournament Plays: Jimmy Butler ($9,500), Zach LaVine ($7,400), DeAndre Bembry ($4,700)
Small forward -- in terms of salary -- is LeBron James ($11,700) -- and then everyone else. Nobody is above $7,000 other than James. LeBron has averaged a stellar 1.55 FanDuel points per minute on the year with a 32.3% usage rate. The Bulls' defense rates out 18th in defensive rating. However, at that salary, he grades out as a poor value, making him more of a tournament differentiation piece than a core play.
The value at small forward is in the mid range with (in order of preference): Miles Bridges ($5,400), Larry Nance Jr. ($5,000), Cam Reddish ($4,200), Rudy Gay ($4,900), and De'Andre Hunter ($4,500). numberFire projects all of them for at least 4.9 FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary tonight, generally the mark to seek in cash games.
Core Plays: Miles Bridges, Larry Nance Jr. Cam Reddish
Secondary Plays: Rudy Gay, De'Andre Hunter
Tournament Plays: LeBron James, Gordon Hayward, Danilo Gallinari