3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 11/4/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's statline, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Under 1.5 Made Threes
Giannis Antetokounmpo made two three-pointers on opening night before missing his next nine three-point attempts over three games. Giannis has since made two three-pointers in six tries over the Bucks past two wins. The MVP is 4-of-20 on the season, and while his attempts per game are up from 2.8 last year to 3.3 this season, his percentage has dropped from 25.6 percent to 20 percent.
It's no secret he's been working on his long-range game and on confidence in taking the shot, but last season, if you took this prop every game, you'd have made a profit. Giannis nailed two or more three-pointers in 12 of 72 regular-season games last year. The Greek Freak's projections from our model are 28.9 points in 38.6 minutes to go with 0.7 three-pointers made.
Ben Simmons, Over 33.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Ben Simmons is playing the last game without teammate Joel Embiid, and our model projects Simmons at 18.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 8.6 assists -- which would give him the easy over. Simmons put up 18 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists without Embiid in a 129-128 win over the Portland on Saturday. A triple-double threat on a nightly basis, Simmons averaged 24 points, 8 assists, and 7 rebounds in two games versus the Suns last season.
The 76ers (5th) and Suns (11th) are two of the top teams in pace factor. Expect Simmons to push the tempo, find open teammates, and orchestrate the offense much like Philadelphia did against Portland --where they hoisted 33 three-point attempts and a season-high 36 assists.
Damian Lillard, Over 2.5 Made Threes
The Portland Trail Blazers travel to Golden State tonight to take on a Warriors team that's already without Stephen Curry, in addition to Draymond Green and, potentially, D'Angelo Russell. Through six games, Lillard is second in the leagues in three-pointers made with 22, trailing only Buddy Hield (24), and is fourth in attempts with 54. Our model projects Damian Lillard to make 3.6 three-pointers tonight to go with 27.3 points. If Russell can't go, Jordan Poole and Ky Bowman will draw the responsibility of slowing down Lillard.
Lillard's 3.7 makes per game on 9.0 attempts this season are both career-highs so far. In four regular-season games against the Warriors last season, Lillard averaged 28.3 points and 4.5 threes made on 9.0 attempts. He's made three or more three-pointers in all but one game this season.
Vaughn Dalzell is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice Vaughn Dalzell also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username vdalzell. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.