NBA Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/1/19
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Trail Blazers +4.0: 1-Star Rating out of 5
Heading into Game 2 in Denver, the 219.5-point total is in a bad spot considering the team's past results this year, as well as the quick line movement. In the team's previous five meetings, they have averaged a total of 228.0 points with at least 223 in each contest. They hit 234 in Game 1 alone, so it's natural to see the line move from 217.5 at the open. According to Sports Insights, 73% of the public bets remain on the over, but there's limited value there and in the potential return.
That being said, let's attack the Portland Trail Blazers with the points. Including their Game 1 loss, the Blazers are 1-4 against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, but per Killer Sports, they have covered in one and pushed in another.. They've won or at least lost by single-digits in every one, and by three or fewer in two others. They've lost by 2.8 points on average.
In the first game of the series, Portland lost by eight, yet it's worth noting that they were bested in only two of the four quarters. They pushed in the first quarter and ended up taking the fourth by a count of 29-28.
Among the areas in which Denver had the edge, they tallied one more three-point make on the same number of attempts, but that was with C.J. McCollum going 2-for-7 from deep for a total of 16 points. The Blazers will need him to bounce back in order to close the gap in Game 2, and if you expect that to him there is value in betting on Portland with or without the points.
During the regular season, Portland went 19-9 when their star shooting guard made three or more triples and 12-8 when he scored 25-plus points. Those aren't dominant numbers, but with such a narrow margin for error and in a tightly-contested series, C.J.'s production could be the difference between an 0-2 hole or a 1-1 series heading to Portland this weekend.
Zooming back out, our models have Denver at a 61.73% win probability but Portland at 53.32% to cover the spread. That spread has held steady, so unless it moves the points are a wise way to go in tonight's only game. It comes with an expected return of 1.80% and a one-star bet, and if you're looking for a higher-risk, higher-reward bet, the +148 moneyline on the underdogs might be the way to go.
If you're looking for even more incentive, or frankly more action on a rather quiet night, FanDuel Sportsbook offers a pair of Player Performance Doubles worth consideration. At +400 odds, you can bet on a Portland win and for McCollum to make three triples in the process. But even better, McCollum scoring 25 in a Blazers' win enters at +650, returning $650 for every $100 laid on a successful bet.
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