NBA Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/2/19
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 225.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
There's no LeBron James, among others, for the Los Angeles Lakers, leaving them as big underdogs (+12.5) on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Betting the spread or the moneyline can be a risky proposition tonight in a potentially lopsided game. But going with the over could turn out well in this spot.
According to Killer Sports, the Lakers have had the over hit just 38.2% of the time, though they and their opponents have average 225.8 points a game. On the road, though, it's been much more favorable to the over, with it hitting 47.4% of the time with a combined total of 228.2 points per game -- 1.1 above the average over/under. Even in the seven games they've been 'dogs of 10 or more points, the average total is 224.5 points, right around today's figure.
But on the OKC side, the Thunder have had the over win out 47.3% of the time, not including three pushes. The average combined total between them and their opponents is 224.8 points, with the over hitting 56.8% of the time in only home games. That includes three of their last five at Chesapeake Energy Arena.
Our models have the two combining for at least 226 points at a 65.08% likelihood. A 24.20% return is enough for a three-star rating in our system.
Over 220.0: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Nuggets +8.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
The Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors continue to battle it out for the top seed in the Western Conference, with Golden State currently owning a one-game edge. Each has won 7 of the last 10, but the Dubs are coming off an impressive 47-point win on Sunday. They've won three of four and two straight at home
To this point, the Nuggets and Warriors are 26th and 10th in pace, respectively. Denver and Golden State are sixth and first, respectively, in offensive rating, putting up 110.9 and 117.7 points -- a combined 228.6 per game. In their three previous matchups, they combined for 226.0 points a game with an average over/under of 230.8. The over hit in one, and only one (198 points) came up short of 227. The only one at Oracle was a 122-105 Warriors win, which was played at a 101.9-possession pace.
Given that, the over looks like the smart bet. After falling from 222 to where it is now, per Sports Insights, it has stabilized with 64% of bets on the over. Our models expect them to hit 221 or more 68.48% of the time for a potential return of 30.70%.
Sticking here, the Nuggets getting 8.5 is a worthwhile bet, as well. Two of their losses to Golden State have been blowouts, but they took one by two back in October, and they are looking as healthy as they have in a while, Jamal Murray and his bum ankle included.
By net rating, Golden State is only 1.9 points better per 100 possessions, and even when you look at the home-road numbers, the Nuggets' -1.9 mark is 7.8 off the Warriors' 5.7 at home. Those averages are telling, but it's worth noting that the Warriors are only 37.8% against the spread on their home floor. And that's an even lower 34.8% against Western Conference teams alone -- 25% in the eight games with a spread of 8.5 or fewer.
The over is the slightly better play, but taking Denver with the points is nearly just as good, per our numbers, at 63.13%. The return is also smaller, but it's a respectable 20.50%, commanding another three-rating line by our ratings.
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