This was supposed to be the easy series for the Spurs after winning nine in a row against their bitter rival. This was supposed to be a Texas showdown between two great forwards in nail a game-winning three. He's not the most dangerous threat for the Mavericks, but he's one of a few forgotten veterans that has stepped up in this series for them.

Devin Harris and his 18 points were key in keeping Game 1 close. Then it was Shawn Marion and his 20 points in Game 2 that helped propel their huge victory. And Monta Ellis has completely taken over the series, contributing 61 points (including 29 in game three) in the three games so far.

I wrote about the Spurs being able to go deep into their roster in the series preview, but the Mavericks took the Spurs' blueprint and have done the same with their own team. They have allowed San Antonio to focus on one player while someone else has stepped up. The Spurs can't afford to take anyone on this team lightly if they want to win Game 4.

Winning the turnover battle is a must. Getting more out of their role players is necessary. And getting back to their defensive ways - the Spurs had the third-highest defensive efficiency mark in the regular season according to our numberFire metrics - will snuff out any momentum the Mavericks might have.

Currently, our numbers give the Spurs a 44.07% chance of winning this series. If the Spurs can hang on for a victory in Game 4 though, the tides should shift in their favor. If they can't, it will be 2011 all over again.