3 NBA Prop Bets to Target on 5/23/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the NBA. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
Marcus Morris OVER 12.5 Points (-120)
Marcus Morris has seen his efficiency numbers fall a lot on the road in the postseason, but he's back home and should be primed for a bigger offensive night in Game 5.
Morris owns a 94.1 offensive rating (ORtg) on the road in the playoffs, compared to 115.0 when he plays in Boston. With Morris averaging 13.3 points per game at home this postseason, our models think he'll bounce back in Game 5 with 17.4 points, substantially clear of his over/under for tonight's matchup.
Al Horford OVER 15.5 Points (-103)
Al Horford has also been a different player at TD Garden in the playoffs. Horford is averaging 19.7 points per game at home this postseason, compared to 12.0 points per game on the road.
Now in a pivotal Game 5, our models think Horford is also in for a bigger game than BetOnline is projecting. Horford owns a 20.4% usage rate at home, compared to just 16.7% on the road this postseason. With that in mind, our models are projecting Horford for 18.0 points on Wednesday.
Terry Rozier OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-125)
Terry Rozier has struggled some offensively in the Eastern Conference Finals. He owns a 41.5% shooting clip from the floor, and he is shooting just 25.0% from downtown. For Game 5, the Boston Celtics will need Rozier to come through offensively, but our models think that the better bet might be on Rozier's rebounding numbers.
Rozier has collected 6 or more rebounds in 10 of his last 11 playoff games. Since the start of that streak back in the first round, Rozier has a 17.4% defensive rebounding rate. For Game 5 on Wednesday, our models project Rozier for 6.6 rebounds.