NBA Playoff Odds: If Not the Warriors, Then Who?

Which team does our algorithm think is most likely to take home the Larry O'Brien trophy?

The NBA Playoffs tip off on Saturday with four games on the schedule, including the defending champion Golden State Warriors. But unlike last postseason, our models don't have the Dubs as the top dogs coming in. That title, in terms of Championship Odds, belongs to the Houston Rockets, with the Toronto Raptors sitting at number two.

The team with the worst chances of winning the NBA Finals? The recently-flailing, 8 seeded Washington Wizards of the Eastern Conference, at 0.80%.

You can see the probabilities for every playoff team in the chart below, which shows each team's odds to win their First Round matchup, as well as team odds of winning the whole thing. To see even more detailed numbers, included offensive and defensive efficiency for each team, see our Team Power Rankings page here.

TeamFirst Round OddsNBA Championship Odds
Houston Rockets75.10%23.40%
Toronto Raptors79.68%19.80%
Golden State Warriors63.90%14.60%
Cleveland Cavaliers71.49%11.40%
Philadelphia 76ers65.82%7.20%
Oklahoma City Thunder52.51%3.70%
San Antonio Spurs36.10%3.60%
Utah Jazz47.49%3.40%
Boston Celtics59.55%3.30%
Portland Trail Blazers52.79%1.90%
Minnesota Timberwolves24.90%1.80%
New Orleans Pelicans47.21%1.80%
Indiana Pacers28.51%1.10%
Milwaukee Bucks40.45%1.10%
Miami Heat34.18%1.10%
Washington Wizards20.32%0.80%