NBA Market Share Report: Finding Value With Andre Drummond
Welcome back to another edition of the weekly NBA Market Share Report. Be sure to check out last week's chapter about the second tier of two-guards, showing love for Wilson Chandler, and a friendly reminder that Draymond Green is still pretty sweet.
This week, we continue to tap into the bargain bin with two big dudes, while also gauging the lead man in Detroit since his return to action.
Let us hoop!
Trusting Chief Kieff
As the Washington Wizards continue to scrap their way through the season, Markieff Morris has done his best to keep us coming back for more as FanDuel participants -- at least since the start of the new year.
Over the course of the Wizards’ six games so far this month, Morris’ salary has hovered right around $5,000, while his averages of 15 points, 7 boards, and 2 assists have provided a nice return of 28 FanDuel points per game.
Generally speaking, Morris serves as a pretty inconsistent lineup option, making him more of a tournament play than cash game reliable. But if you’re a believer in the current groove (I am!) and his fit on this Wizards' starting lineup (yup!), not only does his salary serve as an attractive target, but so do most of the game scripts Washington finds themselves in.
Markieff Morris slams it home on the fastbreak! pic.twitter.com/hs3ihZmHWj
— Jayhawks In The NBA (@NBA_Jayhawks) January 11, 2017
Although Morris doesn’t sport an incredible ceiling amongst his position, he’s still putting up a ton of shots even as his team’s fourth scoring option, and he’s averaging 31 minutes a night.
Add that to his recent uptick in fantasy production and a low salary and you’re suddenly looking at one of the better bargains amongst the top-15 power forwards right now.
Drummond's Bread and Butter
Speaking of recent value, Andre Drummond has been turning awesome numbers in return for salaries typically under $8,000. Over the course of his last 10 games, Drummond is averaging just over 38 FanDuel points per game, including three games of 40-plus, and two games of 50-plus, with an average salary of $7,750.
It’s no coincidence Drummond’s biggest fantasy outputs have come on nights when he’s dominated the glass -- otherwise known as his bread and butter. He’s logged double-digit rebounding totals in 77 percent of his games this season and at least 15 rebounds in 40 percent of them. Drummond is also the only center ranked in the top-20 in steals per game (1.5), and his 14 points help to rank him fifth in the league with 26 double-doubles on the season.
Instances like these are also fun.
WATCH: Andre Drummond sends it into the stands with the BIG block pic.twitter.com/HEqEckIovL
— NBA Australia (@NBA_AU) January 11, 2017
If you’re anything like me, overthinking the center position is commonplace. But because he’s a top-five producer at his position, Drummond will typically draw at least a look as you’re crafting your lineups, and on nights when his salary dips below $7,900, that’s when you can really strike for value.
Liking or Loving Reggie
After missing the first 21 games of the season due to injury, Reggie Jackson now has a solid 20 games in the books and we can assess the sort of fantasy impact he’s had thus far to decide if we like him or love him.
If we’re talking in terms of recent play, most of us are probably gripping on that five-game stretch between late December and the first week of the new year when Jackson went for at least 34 a game, nearly hit 50 against the Indiana Pacers, and averaged 39 FanDuel points per game. That sample size, of course, includes lots of love from us fantasy guys.
Taking into account the 20-game sample, however, it breaks down into Jackson hitting five times value (five fantasy points per $1,000 in salary) in eight of those games, six times value in four of them, and missing four times value in nearly half of them.
To be fair, we’ve seen huge swings in price since his return to action, with salary reaching as low as $5,400 and as high as $7,200, meaning we’re always caught bargain shopping for a player like him. In the five instances where his salary has been $7,000 or higher, Jackson has averaged just 23 points and barely reached three fantasy points per $1,000 in salary.
It’s no revelation that most players outside of the freakish ones require nightly valuation, and Jackson is no different. There are things to like in terms of his shooting volume (14 shots per game) and usage rate (28 percent), but the overall inconsistency might remind us to look for him only when game scripts permit, as in an opponent helping the tempo of a game and increasing the Detroit Pistons' lowly pace.
And that’ll do it for this week. Remember that NBA All-Star voting is completely wackadoo and that John Wall absolutely deserves to be in New Orleans next month.