3 Daily Fantasy Basketball Players to Avoid on 11/11/16
In daily fantasy basketball, finding players you want to roster is a lot easier than finding players to avoid.
You can find a ton of great information and research on guys you might want to include tonight in your DFS NBA lineups, but what about some guys you may want to lessen your exposure to, or even fade altogether?
Avoiding players whose matchups or situations aren't as great as they seem can often be just as important as finding the best targets each night. After all, it takes only one player to sink a lineup. Searching for the landmines could mean the difference from winning or losing your contests.
DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors
FanDuel Price: $9,000
DeMar DeRozan is off to an amazing start. He has almost single-handedly brought back the midrange jump shot, and he is averaging a league-leading 34.1 points per game because of it. He is also getting to the line 10 times per game so far this season. However, the Charlotte Hornets are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, and because of his amazing start, DeRozan has reached $9,000 on FanDuel for the first time ever.
DeRozan's floor for counting stats is still pretty low though, so he is a little reliant on his scoring to hit fantasy value. That gets harder as his price tag goes up and as his matchups get tougher. Charlotte knows all about DeRozan's hot start, and if they can keep him below 25 points, they not only have a great shot at winning the game, but there would also be little chance DeRozan hits value.
The Hornets rank inside the top 10 in all four defensive four factors this season. They are holding opponents to a 48.1% effective field goal percentage, but the biggest thing that could slow down DeRozan tonight is Charlotte's ability to keep their opponents off the line. The Hornets rank second in the league in free throws per field goal attempt against, and Nicolas Batum part of that.
Batum is holding players he defends to 45% shooting from the floor, and more importantly, he averages only about two fouls per game. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been ruled out, giving Charlotte one fewer defender to throw at DeRozan, but jumping off the DeRozan train before it crashes tonight makes sense from a lot of angles -- even if there's a lot in his favor, too.
Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic
FanDuel Price: $7,400
Nikola Vucevic had one of his best games of the season en route to a 51.8-FanDuel-point performance against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, and now, he is the third-highest priced center on the board. He has gone for 50 fantasy points twice this season, and with the point chasers in full effect, it's time to also jump off the Vucci Man.
Tonight, he will go up against Rudy Gobert, who has been playing outstanding on the defensive end to start the season. Gobert is holding players he defends to only 39.6% shooting from the floor. Within six feet of the basket, his defended field goal percentage is 46.3%, which is more than 15 percentage points lower than those player's average shooting from that distance.
Needless to say, Vucevic could easily see a big reduction in production against Gobert and the slow-paced Utah Jazz. His two big games came against the T'Wolves and the Philadelphia 76ers, two teams that rank 28th and 24th, respectively, in allowed FanDuel points per game to opposing centers.
The Jazz haven't been great either in that department, allowing just under one FanDuel point per minute to the position. However, Gobert is going to put stress on the Orlando Magic defense, too, with his offensive rebounding, so Orlando might choose to go to Bismack Biyombo earlier in this one, leaving Vucevic to ride the bench if he isn't hitting shots or grabbing defensive boards.
Marcus Morris, SF, Detroit Pistons
FanDuel Price: $5,800
Usually any player going against Kawhi Leonard is a landmine waiting to happen, and Marcus Morris is not one of the exceptions to the rule. This game screams fade all over it with just a few exceptions like the aforementioned Leonard or maybe Andre Drummond. However, with both teams ranking in the top eight in defensive rating and in the bottom third of the league in pace, Morris is not the type of player that can thrive in that environment.
Morris is shooting only 35.2% from the floor in 12 career matchups against Leonard, and while he does have a good game or two against the reigning two-time defensive player of the year, he has also seen his share of rebounds and assists dwindle from the start of the year. In the first three games, he was averaging 10 rebounds and assists per game, and in his last five, that number has been cut in half.
If Morris is going to be dependent on his scoring for this game, it makes him a tough DFS target. Leonard is holding players he defends to only 32.1% from three-point range. If he takes away the three-point line from Morris, it might be hard for him to rack up enough points to make value.